David Stempler, President of the Air Travelers Association, has provided the Association's assessment of the top ten airline passenger trends and issues for 2008. 

1. The Battle with the Government over Delayed Flights versus High Fares will Continue.

Delayed flights are a political problem stemming from the failure of government to modernize the air traffic control system and build improved airports and runways at existing airport.  The Bush Administration is dealing with the large number of delayed flights by capping the number of flights at JFK Airport, and soon will add Newark Airport with capped flights like LaGuardia Airport. 

We expect that this will drive airfares up and cut flights from the schedule.  This has the possibility of becoming a trend for other congested areas and airports around the country.  Airports and metropolitan areas that might be subject to flight capping are:  Atlanta; Boston; Los Angeles; Miami/Ft. Lauderdale; Washington, DC; Philadelphia; and San Francisco.

2. The Airline System will Continue to Operate at or Near Capacity.

Unless there is a recession, the airline system will continue to operate at near capacity.  To ensure safety, while operating at capacity, if there is any problem like weather, the FAA just slows the system down.   

With the system operating near capacity, the smallest problem can have effects that ripple through the system.  In addition, flights are at very high load factors – the percentage of seats that are filled.  If planes are 90% full, and if a flight is cancelled, the math shows that it will take at least 6 or more subsequent flights to get the passengers to their destinations.  If there are only 2 flights a day to that destination, passengers can be required to wait for up to 3 days to get to their destination.  That is why we always encourage airlines to accept delays and avoid cancellations.

3. The Start of the Next Generation Air Traffic Control System will continue to be Delayed.

The Next Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is stuck in the Congress over funding for the GPS satellite-based system.  The battle is over whether each user of the system should pay their fair share of the costs of their usage of the system. 

The airlines and their passengers having been overpaying for years, and the corporate jets operators, who operate their "air limousines", have been underpaying.  The corporate jet crowd would like to keep things just the way they are and are blocking the "fair share" approach. 

The Air Travelers Association has called for an Aviation Summit with Kenneth Feinberg, the 9/11 Victims Fund Administrator as the mediator, but so far no takers.  Without it, the stalemate will extend well into 2008. 

4. There will be More Reports of Near Collisions in the Air and On the Ground.

With the combination of a continuing dispute between the National Air Traffic Controllers Association and the FAA, the installation of more precise ground-based radars, the heightening crush of aircraft in the air and on the ground, and even some human errors, fatigue, and inexperience, the number of reported near collisions in the air and on the ground will continue.

5. The Battle Over the Passengers' Bill of Rights versus Passengers Rights to Get to Their Destination Will Continue.

The battle will continue over whether a "Passengers' Bill of Rights" that forces the plane back to the terminal after a certain amount of time will best serve passengers interests.  But what about the right of passengers who say, "We've invested this much time already, don't cancel the flight by going back to the terminal, but get me to that meeting, wedding, court appearance, cruise, vacation, dying relative, critical appointment, or any of the thousands of reason people fly."  In addition, 50 different state "Passenger Bills of Rights" is no answer for a national airline system.

6. Watch for Domestic Airlines to Merge or Accept Foreign Carrier Investments.

Some believe if there is to be consolidation in the airline business it may come early in 2008, so that they can be completed while the Bush Administration is still in office.  The feeling is that the Democrats are likely to take over the White House and will be tougher on mergers, especially if they represent a threat to labor, which the Democrats will be beholden to if they win the election.

Lufthansa's purchase of 19% of JetBlue may start a trend.  For Lufthansa, it provides great traffic feed to Lufthansa flights that can now go all over Europe under the new US-EU treaty.  It may also be a company that Lufthansa can buy very valuable JFK slots from, now that JFK will be slot capped.  Delta has a huge number of slots at JFK, as does American.  What are the possibilities?

7. Expect More Regional Jets in Our Future.

As passengers continue to demand low fares, the only way that many of the old-line, legacy carriers can produce these fares is operating flights through their regional partners, operating regional jets of all sizes.  To the extent that passengers still remain low fares, which we think will continue into 2008, the proliferation of regional jets will continue into 2008.

8. There will be Continued Service Problems with Airlines with Labor Disputes.

Those airlines that are having union difficulties with their pilots, mechanics, and flight attendants will continue to have service problems.  Pilots who don't agree to work "above and beyond" the terms of their contract and don't agree to work extra hours can cause service problems at airlines.  All of these groups of workers are unhappy with their managements who have taken huge amounts of stock, received large bonuses and dividends, while the workers have lost their pensions and have had their salaries cut, can be the cause of continuing problems.

9. The Competition Between the Super-Jumbo Airbus A380 versus Super-Nonstop Boeing 787 will Begin in 2009.

The Boeing 787 will begin flight testing in 2008 and the battle will be joined the following year between the big bet that Boeing and Airbus have made with their aircraft production.  The A380 Super-Jumbo will enable around 500 passengers in 3-class service to travel from hub cities to hub cities.  On the other hand, the Boeing 787 with approximately 225 seats in 3-classes, will allow airlines to fly nonstop from their home airport to distant destination on the other half of the globe.  Which will win?  We shall see.  But the battle will be joined in 2009.

10. The Battle Between Residents on the Ground Over Noise and Airline Passengers in the Air will Continue.

 As the first steps in modernizing the air traffic control system like the New York/New Jersey/Philadelphia Airspace Redesign, many old air routes (like the old 2-lane, US Highway system) must be converted to modern, multi-lane routes (like the Interstate Highway System), and the people on the ground, under these new routes are complaining and want this modernization to stop.  These are many of the same people who want discount flights and don't want delayed flights for their own trips.  It is a conflict that will continue into 2008.

The Air Travelers Association (www.AirTravelersAssociation.com ), founded in 1997, advocates for airline passengers on airline safety, security, savings, and service.  David Stempler, President of the Air Travelers Association, was the airline passenger/consumer representative on the New York Aviation Rulemaking Committee to reduce aviation congestion and delay in the New York metropolitan area, David Stempler is an internationally known authority on airline passenger and air travel issues.