US hotels had a difficult year in 2025, with RevPAR down 0,3%—the first non-recessionary decline on record.

Conditions are improving, and 2026 appears to be a stabilization year. This playbook examines the pricing floor, segment performance variations, and PIP and debt maturity pressures.

It also includes a “seller-readiness checklist” for timing a sale.

Three numbers frame the 2026 hotel transaction landscape: liquidity, operating growth, and refinancing pressure.

The Transaction Bottom: Deal Volume is Recovering

The hotel transaction market is improving, but the numbers require careful context. According to MSCI Real Capital Analytics, hotel deal volume grew to approximately $27.9 billion in 2025, up from the 2024 trough of $24.7 billion.

Critically, price declines are narrowing sharply, from -4.5% in 2023 to just -1.3% in 2025. CoStar projects a return to positive price appreciation (+0.5%) in 2026, suggesting the market has found its floor.

However, this recovery is not uniform. Individual assets are outperforming portfolio trades, with single-asset deal activity rising approximately 16.0%, a signal that institutional buyers are willing to pay premium prices for the right property.

Transaction Volume Trend: Hotel Sector

Source: MSCI Real Capital Analytics

The Great Bifurcation: A Deepening Two-Tier Market

The Great Bifurcation remains the central investment theme of 2026. We expect U.S. RevPAR growth of about 2.2% this year, as published in the HVS U.S. Market Pulse for February 2026. That headline figure, however, conceals a massive divide in performance between the higher and lower segments.

The STR/CoStar February 2026 forecast is lower, at 0.6% blended RevPAR growth, yet the segmented forecast aligns with what is evident in the market. Performance gains are concentrated in luxury and upper-upscale hotels, while select-service and economy assets continue to face ADR pressure and flat-to-negative RevPAR trends.

The divide is likely to persist and is tied to income-based demand strength. Higher income travelers remain resilient, supported by wage gains and household wealth. Owners in middle and lower chain scales should stress-test 2026 hold and exit assumptions.

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Eric Guerrero is a Senior Managing Director and a Partner at HVS, leading the firm’s Brokerage & Advisory division in the United States. With over a decade of investment sales experience, he has participated in hundreds of hotel transactions with an aggregate value of over $800 million across the nation. Eric has advised both private investors and institutional clients and has managed hotel transactions of all classes and sizes, from independent, $1-million, limited-service hotels to $50-million, select-service portfolios across multiple states. Contact Eric at (713) 955-0012 or eguerrero@hvs.com / www.hvs.com.