At the aggregate level, international arrival numbers are predicted to increase by an average of around +2.7 percent each year to 2012. Not surprisingly, these forecasts show a significant slowing in growth rates from the pre-financial crisis level of seven percent per annum.
According to PATA Chairman Mrs. Phornsiri Manoharn, the three-year projections are very much in line with expectations on how the global economy is expected to perform generally. Overall international arrivals growth to Asia Pacific destinations, for example, are predicted to be marginal at just over one percent in 2010, rising to around 4.5 percent in 2011 and then stabilising at around four percent in 2012. These forecasts are subject to any further major economic, social or health disasters.
On a sub-regional grouping basis, destinations that in aggregate, make up South Asia are forecast to grow the fastest at an average rate of +4.9 percent per annum over the period to 2012, followed by Southeast Asia at +4.8 percent.
Northeast Asia is predicted to expand at a rate of +2.2 percent each year over that same period, while the Pacific can look to increases of around +4.0 percent per annum. North America is forecast to expand by around 1.7 percent per annum to 2012.
Growth is, however, predicted to be very uneven at a number of levels but especially at the individual origin-to-destination country level. Examples of some origin-destination pairs that are predicted to perform very much better than the average Asia Pacific growth rates to 2012 are:
By Average Annual Rate of Growth (%) to 2012:- Republic of South Africa to Fiji +59%
- Iran to Malaysia +39%
- China (PRC) to Samoa +37%
Some of these growth rates are off relatively small numeric bases so it is worth considering the actual increase in numbers for a similar set of origin-destination pairs. Examples of strong gains in actual numbers include:
By volume gain (to 2012):- China (PRC) to Korea (ROK) gain of 692,000 international arrivals
- India to Thailand gain of 317,000 international arrivals
- Australia to Malaysia gain of 292,000 international arrivals
One significant aspect of these forecasts is that the overall growth rates will remain very much lower for the next few years and most certainly lower than has been the case in the recent past. This, in turn, heralds the need for tourism-based businesses to continue to find profits in cost containment rather than in volume growth, at least for the current three-year cycle.
Mrs Manoharn said, "These latest authoritative forecasts from PATA reflect the reality of the current market conditions. They point to a gradual and uneven recovery as the region picks itself up from the three percent decline in arrivals in 2009. We have witnessed significant changes in travel trends during the global economic recession. These changes have brought benefits to some and caused difficulties for others and it is clear that the next three years will prove to be both challenging and increasingly competitive for all our members."
