Latest forecasts for international arrivals to the Asia Pacific region contain some very modest grounds for optimism but the spread of the Type A (H1N1) influenza virus is posing yet another serious threat to the travel and tourism industry.

Updates produced today (Monday July 13th) from PATA's Strategic Intelligence Centre indicate that Southeast Asia will this year suffer a fall of around four percent in international arrivals compared to 2008. PATA has also revised forecasts for all Asia sub-regions for 2010. The initial prediction of a growth of some 12.7 percent in international arrivals for Southeast Asia has been downgraded to 6.8 percent (compared to 2008).

But there is every chance that the continuing spread of the Type A (H1N1) influenza virus will further undermine the confidence of business and leisure travellers and prompt drastic preventative measures by national governments and other public and private sector organisations that will also hinder cross-border traffic.

PATA remains in close contact with its members, industry stakeholders and authoritative bodies such as the World Health Organization and the UNWTO on this vital issue.

"It is clear that we must now apply the knowledge, expertise and lessons learned from the SARS crisis of 2003 and recent outbreaks of the Avian Influenza A/(H5N1). PATA is ready to work closely with its members and the wider travel and tourism community to ensure that the industry is ready to deal with this latest challenge," says Association President and CEO Greg Duffell.