The 2026 ALIS Conference made one thing clear: the hotel industry is navigating an unusual moment where capital is plentiful, deal flow is scarce, and the operating landscape is rapidly and constantly shifting.
Optimism was evident but grounded, marking a clear move beyond post‑pandemic enthusiasm toward more practical, disciplined thinking.
The Market Is Flush with Funds, But Underwriting Remains Tight
Across sessions and conversations, one theme stood out: there is no shortage of capital. From CMBS lenders to bridge providers, conventional funds, and JV partners, the money is there for both acquisitions and new developments, but deal volume remains muted.
Two main barriers continue to hinder transactions:
- Low cash flows, pressured by rising operating costs.
- Major PIPs that push underwriting past acceptable limits.
As a result, more buyers are focusing on strong in‑place cash flow rather than chasing value‑add plays. The appetite to deploy capital is real, but inventory remains thin. Several buyers noted that some of the listings unveiled at ALIS were recycled from last year.
Pricing Realism Takes Hold, Bringing Buyers and Sellers Closer
Sellers are becoming more realistic about pricing, helped by improving interest rates and a stronger appetite to transact in 2026. Brokers shared that owners are actively seeking value checks, creating a sizable BOV pipeline heading into the year.
The good news is that many believe the bid-ask gap has narrowed to roughly 5%, which could finally help unlock deal activity. Even more encouraging, several owners said today’s ~6% cost of debt is workable again, making new deals pencil for the first time in a while.
Market Forecasts Show Modest Growth—and Persistent Uncertainty
HVS and industry analysts expect RevPAR growth to stay flat to modest in 2026. There’s little agreement on how major events like the FIFA World Cup will influence demand, underscoring how tough forecasting has become.
Key trends shaping the outlook include:
- A widening dissociation between GDP and travel demand.
- Luxury segments outperforming economy and midscale.
- Continued pressure on margins driven by labor, regulation, and rising expenses.
- Despite these headwinds, many owners expressed cautious optimism that top-line revenues will trend upward, albeit slowly.
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Rod Clough, MAI, President – Americas, is in his 30th year with HVS and leads the Americas region from its headquarters office in Colorado. As President, Rod has developed the vision and strategy for the Americas and oversees its execution throughout the Americas' 40 locations. He has cultivated a firm that thrives with an extraordinary culture and remains the thought leader in the hospitality consulting space. He is proud to lead a group of 175 exceptional team members that execute thousands of engagements annually. Rod also has a passion for speaking, regularly sharing the insights and thought leadership of HVS at the nation's leading hospitality conferences. Rod is a graduate of Cornell's School of Hotel Administration, a Designated Member of the Appraisal Institute (MAI), a state-certified general appraiser, and a licensed hotel broker.
Contact Rod at (214) 629-1136 or rclough@hvs.com / hvs.com
