Newly released data of Tourism Economics confirms that US inbound travel is continuing to underperform in 2025.

Overseas and Canadian visitation to the US falls well below previously forecasted levels. The downward trend began in February, fueled by geopolitical and policy-related concerns. Paired with harsh rhetoric, these concerns have contributed to unpredictability and negative global travel sentiment toward the US.

Let's explore what the latest numbers say through July 2025.

Overseas arrivals dropped 3.1% in July, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) decline to 1.6%, with losses driven by decreases from Western Europe and Asia.

Canadian visitation continues to collapse, down 25.2% YTD. This includes a 37.0% drop in land arrivals in July alone.

• Hotel occupancy in northern border states—like Maine, where occupancy fell to 53.9% YTD vs. 57.2% in 2024—is notably down. 

Meanwhile, Mexican arrivals are outperforming with 13.9% growth YTD through May, pacing above the forecast.

Overseas Arrivals Have Declined for Three Consecutive Months | Source: National Travel and Tourism Office

The sentiment drag has proven to be severe. Last December, the forecast projected an approximate 9% increase in overall international arrivals to the US for 2025. Now, the revised forecast expects an 8.2% decline, with overseas visits remaining well below 2019 levels. 

Total inbound spending is expected to fall by 4.2%, a loss of $8.3 billion in visitor spending.

Looking ahead, while Mexico highlights a bright spot, the overall outlook remains weak:

• International inbound air bookings are pacing 10% to 14% below last year from August through October.
• Air bookings from Canada to the US are 35.6% to 43.0% lower than this time last year.
• Canadian interest in Mexico is surging—with bookings for August to October up 11.8% to 13.5%.

One good thing: Expected reductions in outbound travel may help boost domestic travel as fewer Americans plan to travel abroad. Additionally, the weakened dollar has made the US a more affordable destination.

Still, the sharp inbound travel slowdown reflects real economic consequences for many US destinations, especially those near the northern border. Rebuilding sentiment will be key to restoring demand.