Following heavy losses of passenger traffic due to COVID-19, the resurgence of Southeast Asia's aviation market is vital to regional recovery, so this report reveals strategies to help ADB members rebuild a greener, more resilient aviation industry.
Before COVID-19, Southeast Asia had one of the world's fastest-growing air transport markets, but this region lost over 80% of its passenger traffic during the pandemic.
This study looks at the Southeast Asian aviation market before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the impact of the first 2 years of the pandemic.
For the pre-pandemic era, data from 2019 is analyzed in detail as well as data from the decade pre-pandemic, highlighting the rapid growth for Southeast Asia in the 2009 to 2019 period. For the first 2 years of the pandemic, data from April 2020 to March 2022 is used when available.
Annual data for 2020 and 2021 is also used in some cases as monthly data is not always available. The 2020 data is somewhat skewed because in the first quarter (Q) of 2020 passenger traffic was down relatively modestly— particularly in the first 2 months—with the World Health Organization only declaring COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020.
This study includes an in-depth look at the post-pandemic period, assessing various recovery scenarios and suggesting recovery strategies. As part of the post-pandemic section, there are 20 recommendations.
This study was initially researched and written between February 2022 and May 2022. A pre-publication version of this study was shared with industry stakeholders in September 2022. A webinar was held in October 2022 to discuss the findings and latest market conditions.
The traffic data analyzed in this study generally covers up to March 2022. April 2022 marked the start of the endemic phase for Southeast Asia as most borders reopened and travel restrictions were lifted. There is discussion in the post-pandemic section of the study of the market starting to recover in Q2 2022 and the challenges the industry was starting to confront during the initial ramp-up.
However, traffic data for Q2 2022 was not available when this study was written. Some Q2, Q3 and Q4 2022 data is provided in this preface to provide context on the speed of the recovery in the first 9 months after borders reopened and travel restrictions were lifted.
Q2, Q3, and Q4 2022 passenger traffic data are available for 11 of the 14 large airports (over 10 million annual passengers pre-pandemic) in Southeast Asia. Data on the following table shows the domestic and international recovery rate (% of passengers compared to the same period of 2019) for Q2, Q3, and Q4 2022.
Singapore was initially the fastest recovering international market in Southeast Asia, with international passenger traffic reaching 50% of 2019 levels for the first time in June 2022, 60% in September 2022, and 70% in December 2022. Singapore traffic is expected to reach 80% of 2019 in March 2023. International passenger traffic in Singapore was at 77% of 2019 levels in January 2023 and 78% in February 2023 (based on Changi Airport data).
In Thailand, international passenger traffic reached 57% of 2019 levels in January 2023 and 60% in February 2023 (based on Airports of Thailand data). Overall, Southeast Asia had an international recovery rate of nearly 70% in both January and February 2023. Singapore and Thailand are the two largest international markets in Southeast Asia with Singapore recovering faster than the Southeast Asia average and Thailand slower.
Contents
- Executive Summary
- Background and Objectives of the Engagement
- Assessment of the Landscape Before Coronavirus Disease
- Assessment of the Impact of the Coronavirus Disease Pandemic
- Post-Pandemic Assessment
- Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios
- Country Assessments and Case Studies
- Conclusion
Download the report here
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It assists its members and partners by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.