World travel successfully steered its way past political crises and natural catastrophes in 2011 and is expected to record a new all-time high this year, exceeding even the expectations of experts.

That was the key message at the 19th World Travel Monitor Forum, held in Pisa in early November 2011.

According to IPK International's World Travel Monitor, the volume of travel abroad will increase by 5% year-on-year in 2011, with domestic trips worldwide rising by 2.5%. The forecast is comparable to figures from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) presented at the Pisa forum.

The UNWTO predicted that international arrivals will increase by 4-4.5% this year to a new all-time high. In a notable sign of the industry's resilience in 2011, these forecasts are at the upper end of the 3-5% growth range that was forecast for this year at last year's Pisa forum.

Looking ahead, experts are cautiously optimistic for moderate growth for 2012 despite the uncertain world economic outlook. Factors such as rising incomes in emerging markets and stable unemployment and disposable income in mature markets are expected to drive demand next year.

IPK CEO Rolf Freitag predicted in Pisa an increase of 3-4% for world  utbound trips in 2012, based on the current economic environment. This would be more moderate growth than this year but still ‘a soft landing' in view of the uncertain macro-economic outlook for 2012.

The UNWTO predicts a similar 3-4% increase in international arrivals next year.

A year of crises and catastrophes

2011 was a year of dramatic and unforeseen events that impacted on world travel and tourism. The protests, conflicts and revolutions in Arab countries at the start of the year, the tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, the euro zone debt crisis, and political and economic drama in Greece and then Italy, were just the most prominent in a long series of disruptive events around the world.

In response, more than eight million travellers switched  estinations, preferring to visit "safer" countries, and could not be enticed back with dumping prices, Freitag told Pisa participants. Yet at the same time, ‘New World' economies continued to boom this year, increasing private wealth in those countries. Salaries in China, Russia, Brazil and India are rising fast, with a resulting trend to upwards mobility. This continued to drive demand for foreign travel in these so-called ‘emerging markets', the IPK chief pointed out.

As of early November, Germany's renowned IFO Institute was predicting that world GDP would grow by 4% this year but also next year despite the troubled world economic climate and sharp decline in confidence in recent months. However, these forecasts could be downgraded before the end of the year. Speaking in Pisa, Dr. Gernot Nerb, economic expert at  the institute, said that next year would no doubt see a decline in the global economy, but he saw no immediate reason to panic. "Only a lack of coordinated measures will push the global economy back to the brink of another recession, as it did in 2008. But that is still a long way off."

According to Nerb there is a 70% likelihood that the global economy will not drift back into recession. Next year Asia will again be driving the global economy. "China and India, as well as Japan, carry our hopes for 2012", he added. In contrast, the euro zone and the USA are likely to see only low growth, he said.

Tourism avoids obstacles and drives ahead

Despite this difficult political and economic environment, the worldwide travel industry succeeded in growing well in 2011. According to IPK's World Travel Monitor, the total number of trips will increase by 3% to 6.6 billion this year, based on figures for the year to date and IPK estimates.

Outbound (international) trips will increase by 5% to 980 million, while domestic trips will go up more moderately by 2.5% to 5.65 billion. The number of outbound trips with overnight stays (i.e. excluding day trips) is forecast to grow by 5% to 740 million this year.

However, there has been a noticeable slowdown in travel in the last few months of 2011. This has seen more apparent in domestic travel than in international.

World Travel Trends

Higher average spending per trip

Interestingly, global outbound travel spending rose faster than the number of trips, indicating higher spending per trip. In total, outbound travel spending grew 8% to €828 billion in 2011, according to the World Travel Monitor. Spending per night rose 4% while spending per trip increased 2%. Asians spend the most per trip, ahead of Americans and then followed by the Europeans.

These figures largely reflect the dominance of short-haul travel in Europe and longer geographical distances, and thus higher costs, for Asians and Americans.

Record for overnight stays

There was also a record number of global outbound overnight stays this year, with a 4% rise to 5.9 billion, the World Travel Monitor found. However, international travellers continued to take shorter average trips this year. Thereby, Americans take the longest trips, just ahead of Europeans, while Asians take the shortest trips.

Full Report:

www.itb-berlin.de/media/itb/itb_media/itb_pdf/publikationen/WTTR_Report_komplett_web_2011_2012.pdf

This ITB World Travel Trends Report 2011/12 was again commissioned by ITB Berlin from IPK International, organisers of the 19th annual World Travel Monitor Forum, held at San Giuliano Terme, near Pisa, Italy, in early November 2011.

The report covers the main trends in outbound travel demand for the first eight months of 2011 together with estimates for the full year and also contains initial forecasts for 2012, as presented at the Pisa forum (as it is widely known). In addition, it highlights several topics presented and discussed at the forum – such as sustainability, the internet and the rise of China – that will certainly continue to influence the industry significantly in the future.

As the following sections make clear, the world travel industry has generally performed very well in 2011 and has even exceeded forecasts. Outbound (international) trips will increase by 5% in 2011, overnight stays will rise by 4% and spending will go up as much as 8%, according to IPK's World Travel Monitor. These are impressive figures and demonstrate the industry's resilience in the face of diverse dramatic events and crises this year that impacted on the sector.

Looking ahead, it is clear that we have entered a period of political and economic uncertainty. Nevertheless, experts at this year's Pisa forum were cautiously optimistic for further moderate growth in 2012. This positive outlook is based on solid underlying demand factors in mature markets together with rising incomes and higher demand in emerging markets. As usual, the Pisa forum was organised in co-operation with the European Travel Commission (ETC).

Some 50 experts from around the world, including all regions of Europe, along with North and South America and parts of Asia-Pacific, took part. They represented international organisations, national and regional tourism organisations and associations, international research institutes and private companies from travel and tourism and related sectors.

ITB Berlin is delighted to continue its close association with IPK International and the Pisa forum for the seventh consecutive year. In March 2012 at the ITB Berlin Convention, Rolf Freitag will present updated figures for 2011 as well as current forecasts for 2012.