This is the second of three 5-Year Trends Reports commissioned by EIBTM.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

SECTION A: TECHNOLOGY
1. 'FASTER, BETTER, CHEAPER' - AND SMALLER

2. USE OF THE INTERNET
2.1 Using the Internet for Distribution
2.2 Using the Internet for Site Selection
2.3 Using the Internet for On-line Programme Management

3. USE OF RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION
4. USE OF BIOMETRICS FOR SCREENING
5. USE OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY

SECTION B: TRAVEL
6. USE OF LOW-COST AIRLINES
6.1 Growing Use of Low-Cost Airlines for Business Travel
6.2 Expansion Eastwards in an Enlarged European Union
6.3 Expansion in the Asia-Pacific Region
7. USE OF HIGH-SPEED TRAINS
7.1 Where Will the New High-Speed Links Go?
8. USE OF INNOVATIVE MEANS OF TRANSPORT
8.1 The A380 Airbus
8.2 The Queen Mary II

CONCLUSION
SOURCES & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO ROB DAVIDSON

INTRODUCTION
Each of the trends reports will be revised and updated annually to ensure that we are continuously monitoring the changes in our industry. The first report, published in October 2003, examined the Social & Political Trends that will have the greatest impact on the conference and incentive industry in the five years ahead.

This report focuses on the crucial issues of technology and travel, highlighting how developments in these two separate, but related, domains will result in radical changes to the ways in which conference, incentive and business travel products are designed and distributed in Europe in the next five years.

The enormity of such an undertaking may be readily appreciated when we consider the multitude of ways in which developments in information & communications technology and transport have transformed so many aspects of business tourism in the five years from 1999 to the present day. Five years ago, e-mail had not yet achieved the almost universal presence it now enjoys as a means of professional and personal communication. Mobile telephones were still relative curiosities, owned essentially by early adopters. Most small businesses were still using dial-up connections to the Internet and flip charts were still as likely to be used for presentations as PowerPoint. Tens of thousands of business travellers flew daily over the twin towers of the World Trade Centre, having undergone only the most cursory security checks before boarding.

The astonishing pace of technological progress, and the apparently unstoppable urge to travel faster and further, mean that predicting the trends that will characterise the conference, incentive and business travel markets over the next five years is not an easy task. For those of us operating in these sectors of business tourism though, it is absolutely vital that we achieve a degree of understanding of the ways in which we shall be using technology and transport by 2009: in the products we promote, organise, sell and purchase. This EIBTM Report draws upon the most authoritative and most recent intelligence on this topic, to enable our industry to prepare itself for the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead, as the first decade of the 21st Century draws to a close.

Rob Davidson, EIBTM Industry Analyst
Senior Lecturer in Business Travel & Tourism, University of Westminster

March 2004




SECTION A: TECHNOLOGY

1. 'FASTER, BETTER, CHEAPER' - AND SMALLER
There is no doubt that technology will continue to evolve at a remarkable pace over the next five years.

Corbin Ball, named in MeetingNews Magazine as one of the '25 Most Influential People in the Meetings Industry' is an international consultant on the use of technology in the meetings industry. He predicts that over the next few years:

"Computers will get smaller and cheaper; processors will get faster; batteries will hold a charge longer; displays will have better resolution and be more flexible; data projectors will get smaller, cheaper and brighter; and broadband internet will get faster and ubiquitous. There will be a doubling of performance tied to price every 18 months into the next decade. The phrase 'faster, better and cheaper' will continue to apply to most of the technology products we buy".

Over the next five years, mobile phone technology will evolve particularly rapidly, and we shall see a gradual convergence of the PDA and the mobile phone. Corbin Ball has forecast that mobile phones, with access to wireless broadband, will be able to be used as mini-PDA phones with access to high-speed Internet connections through multiple channels including Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and even faster wireless formats. He notes that a number of products are being developed on these mobile platforms for the meetings industry itself, including mobile registration, networking, surveys, audience response, interactive programs, electronic attendee lists, product directories and lead retrieval systems.


2. USE OF THE INTERNET
We live in the age of 'digital Darwinism'. The permanent Internet revolution is constantly changing the way we live, survive and, we hope, thrive. This revolution is most evident in the way business is conducted in the meetings, incentives and business travel market. This is a market dependant on storing, using and processing vast amounts of data; something that information and communications technology does extremely well. In this section, we review how the Internet will be used in the years ahead.


2.1 Using the Internet for Distribution
Web-based booking tools have been slower to penetrate the corporate market than the leisure travel market. It is generally accepted that by the end of this decade, due to pressure from corporate buyers and suppliers' desire for cost-savings and distribution efficiencies, the use of the Internet for making reservations will be well established as the preferred distribution channel for all forms of business travel. A recent IBM Business Consulting Services report predicted that, overall, on-line travel bookings will approximately double in volume between 2004 and 2007.

More hotel rooms being booked electronically
One aspect of this trend is that the use of electronic distribution channels for the booking of hotel rooms will continue to grow. This will be particularly evident in Europe.

TravelCLICK's database is the exclusive source of hotel industry electronic distribution data from Amadeus, Galileo, Worldspan and Sabre. TravelCLICK's eMonitor results for 2003 indicated a worldwide upswing of 3.3% in electronic room nights versus 2002, and an overall increase of 0.9% in the Average Daily Rate (ADR). This has fuelled a 4.2% increase in 2003 for hotel revenue generated by electronic bookings, compared to 2002.

However, the total of European hotel room nights is increasing faster than the world average of 3.3%. Between 2002 and 2003 there was an increase of 4.7% in the number of hotel rooms in Europe booked electronically through the Global Distribution Systems (GDS) and key Internet travel sites. The region's 2003 ADR improved 10% over 2002, also outperforming the worldwide average increase of 0.9%.
The top 10 destination markets for total GDS room nights in Europe for 2003 were, in order of room nights:




Jan Tissera, Vice President of International Sales for TravelCLICK, commented:
"Madrid and Barcelona hotels experienced double digit growth in the fourth quarter and for all of 2003, as compared to the same periods last year. The growth was influenced by the economic rebound and number of low-cost air carriers coming into Spain, indicating continued recovery and a solid position for continued growth in 2004".

Impacts of GDS Deregulation
By 2009, the Global Distribution Systems (Galilieo, Worldspan, Sabre and Amadeus), that currently play a central role in the distribution of business travel-related products, will have operated in a deregulated environment for four full years, and the impacts of that deregulation on the business travel sector will be well established.

In the field of business travel distribution, the widespread opinion on what those impacts are likely to be appears to suggest that GDS deregulation will generate benefits similar to those created by the deregulation of the airlines. By increasing competition and obliging GDS's to diversify their revenue streams, deregulation will provide improved technology and new products from which individual business travellers and their employers will directly benefit. Lower fares and better service are also widely predicted, adding to the 'push' factors that will stimulate additional travel for work-related purposes.

IBM Business Consulting Services have stated that:
"With deregulation eliminating mandatory GDS participation, downward pressure on GDS pricing has only just begun".

Deregulation will enable the GDS companies to offer more competitive pricing and packaging alternatives to attract more travel suppliers, especially low cost carriers, which may result in more content for end users. By 2009, the GDS's should be in a position to provide those seeking to purchase business travel with one single place to obtain a complete array of the lowest fares and rates, thus eliminating the need to search multiple sources.


2.2 Using the Internet for Site Selection
The virtual world will continue to advance, via the Internet, in the site selection process. Virtual hotel and conference venue tours are already an established feature of site selection and site promotion, but the next five years will see a steady increase in their use, as destinations, venues and hotels become much more sophisticated in using panoramic photography, 3-D modelling, multimedia, and even on-line chat and web conferencing to make the selection process easier for event organisers.

The applications of the Internet will only be limited by the imagination of the users. Meanwhile, new ideas are not in short supply. For example, in February 2004, Meeting News magazine reported that the Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau was using 'video e-mail' to help incoming groups promote their events and the city itself to potential attendees. The service is provided free to the CVB's largest convention clients, and involves custom video messages being made that include invitations promoting the features of the upcoming meeting and direct encouragements to the viewer to register on-line. In addition, a video features Atlanta Falcons' football star Michael Vick, who invites attendees to visit "my town, Atlanta".

According to the CVB's Director of Marketing, the technology places images directly in front of the customer in an accessible and timely manner: "It's a cost-effective direct outreach when advertising dollars are stretched and conventions are looking to CVB's for new offerings".

The streaming-video messages appear in a browser window, playable by Windows Media Player. While the service is free for large convention groups, a sliding-scale fee applies to other groups based on their size, to cover production costs for custom clips.

As the use of the Internet for site-selection purposes becomes ever more ingenious and creative, the use of that medium to research venues will also continue to expand over the next five years. More and more event planners will be logging on to the Internet, rather than opening the filing cabinet full of brochures and venue guides. This will lead to considerable timesavings. Access to destination and venue information via nearly instantaneous technology has already reduced response time dramatically, as elements of the site-selection process that used to take days or even weeks can now be measured in minutes or hours. Sending RFP's (Request for Proposal's) by post to several properties and waiting for responses to be mailed back will be nothing but a dim and distant memory by the end of the first decade of the 21st century.

Event planners will be assisted in their site-selection task by the plethora of websites that will continue to be developed, offering searchable meeting facility databases with everything to be found in a traditional sales kit: photographs, menus, floor plans with room dimensions, automated RFP forms that can be sent to multiple facilities with a click, 'hot dates', and, most recently, on-line auctions. These sites vary considerably in the size of their databases, the richness of meeting facility detail, and how they generate revenue; but during the next five years, the most effective ones will add enhancements that will encourage the trend towards more on-line site-selection.

Writing in the June 2003 edition of Convene magazine (US), Sara Torrence predicted that over the next few years, venue sites would add new, desirable features:

• Interactive floor plans
• An attachment capability
• Sections that are currently missing from most RFP's, such as goals and objectives and audience profiles
• Not just 'hot dates' but also generally available dates and rates
• Information about hotel security and enabling technologies in properties

She also forecast that advance website bookings of larger meetings are likely to increase. As website selection continues to expand internationally, there would also be a standard format to handle the demand.

The MPI 2004 Futurewatch Survey is among those sources predicting this trend. The survey highlighted that growing Internet use was set to continue into 2004. Meeting planners responding to the survey indicated that they expected a 20% increase in use of the Internet to research venues, in addition to an increase of 23% in 2003. The same survey indicated that actual meeting bookings via the Internet were projected to increase by 6% in 2004, following a rise of 5% in on-line bookings the previous year.


2.3 Using the Internet for On-Line Incentive Programme Management
On-line incentive programme management still has a relatively short history. At the annual round-table meeting of incentive professionals, hosted in New York by Incentive magazine in 2003, one participant commented:

"Seven years ago, no one did on-line programmes. Today, there are a significant number of meaningful programmes on-line. Where will we be five years from now?"

What is clear is that this is an area that is set to expand rapidly in the next five years, as the advantages of using websites to market and manage incentive travel schemes become increasingly apparent, notably the savings to be made in time and money, as well as greater flexibility and control.

Already, websites are being used extensively in the incentive travel sector, to let participants view competition rules, register on-line, view their qualification progress and click links to get information on the destinations hosting incentive trips. An effective incentive website can free up planners' time (for example, Frequently Asked Questions can be addressed on-line), cut down on postage and printing costs, and give participants 24/7 access to information.

As an indication of the extent to which information and communications technology is being used for this purpose, the President of USMotivation, an Atlanta-based incentive house, has been recently quoted as saying:

"Every single programme that we have sold to a client in the past year and a half has been on-line. Completely on-line. That doesn't mean we're not sending communications out [in the mail], but it means that all the information for the participant is on-line. For those planning sales and distributor incentives, the old concerns over website access have practically vanished".

Building on the success of these first-generation on-line incentive systems, by 2009, the second generation of electronic incentive programme management systems will be widely adopted in this sector of business tourism. There are already indications that among the promises of the next generation of 'e-incentives' are:

• The ability to communicate to participants with more robust and frequent online newsletters
• Polling exercises
• Customised e-mails

This last facility promises to be particularly effective in improving the efficiency of incentive programmes by making them more individualised. It is widely recognised that people are motivated as individuals. Currently though, most incentive programmes follow a one-size-fits-all approach, with all participants receiving the same mailings, irrespective of what they might respond to or not respond to, and irrespective of the company location. In the near future, it will be commonplace for participants to receive teasers and other incentive programme-related mailings based on their individual profiles and the particular context in which they are working at any time. For example, sales staff working in Paris during the month of August could be sent individual motivational messages recognising the particular challenges they face, to motivate them to achieve better, by for instance, offering them incrementally higher points for sales made that month.

Incentive programme websites will be far more interactive than they currently are. It is widely recognised in this sector that getting participants to visit the website frequently is a major challenge, and interactivity is regarded as an effective way of turning participants into regular visitors. Many incentive travel houses see great potential in, for example, adding streaming video of the reward destination to websites, as a cost-effective alternative to sending out videos, which are usually only sent out to those in the company already recognised as high achievers.

A further indication of how incentive websites can be made more interactive in the future comes in the form of the creative ideas already in use by The Extra Mile Company, based in Auckland, New Zealand. This incentive house uses a variety of games to keep participants clicking on the website. In one case, they have the opportunity to gamble their points in an on-line roulette game; in another, the reward programme is turned into a flight mission to a distant galaxy, with the 'pilot's' achievements being reported as a flight log, supported by the website design.

Increasingly incentive professionals are asking:

• What can we do with this technology that we haven't already thought of?
• How do we take full advantage of the features that are only available on the Internet: its 24/7 opening hours, the ability to do things in real time, the flexibility to change programmes mid-way through?
• How can we use it to be more responsive to changes in the economic and business environment?

In five years' time, these questions will have been answered, to the benefit of the incentive travel sector as a whole.


3. USE OF RADIO FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION
During a conference or a trade show, the exchange of personal information needs to be quick, accurate and secure. Efficient recording of visitors to a particular exhibition stand is a vital step in maximizing sales opportunities for the exhibitor. In Europe, the lead retrieval and access control systems market is still dominated by barcode readers, with the badges of conference delegates or exhibition visitors including a barcode that can be scanned at a lead retrieval station.

Barcodes, however, are not ideal for this purpose; to be scanned, they require line-of-sight, which can be awkward on a badge worn around the neck or attached to a pocket. In addition, standard barcodes do not contain enough data to be entirely useful.

Over the next few years, RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) tagging on conference and exhibition badges will gradually replace the barcode and work its way into a number of lead retrieval, access verification, and attendance tracking systems, despite concerns regarding privacy. The key difference between the two technologies is that RFID's actively transmit data to a receiver rather than a laser scanner.

There are many advantages in replacing barcodes with High Frequency RFID tags:

• Line-of-sight is not required, so the tag can be placed on the back of the conference badge but easily read from the front
• HF RFID tags can store 2k of data on a standard tag, which is ample to contain most attendees' data
• Security is also increased, because RFID tags are difficult to duplicate

RFID enabled badge systems will allow attendees effortlessly to co-ordinate their conference agendas, and exhibitors to manage and retrieve lead information in real time. They will also make it possible to track the identity and location of attendees at the event. Badges are read each time the wearers enter a room of the conference centre or exhibition hall, the information captured will then display who for example, attended conference seminars, presentations, or break-out sessions.


4. USE OF BIOMETRICS FOR SCREENING
A major disincentive to travel on business is the time spent in being screened for security purposes. The challenge for the next few years will be for destinations to reconcile their country's need for thorough security checks at entry points with the business travellers' need to reach their final location as quickly as possible. Technology will be used as part of the solution to this dilemma.

By 2009, security systems based on biometrics - the composition of human features such as faces, fingerprints and eyes - will be in widespread use, affecting the travel industry most notably in the documents we will require in order to travel internationally. On 5th January 2004, the US began digitally scanning the hands and faces of foreigners entering that country on visas. Moreover, the US's insistence that the nationals of those countries entitled to enter without a visa (including most western European countries) should issue passports containing biometric data, will mean that such documents will be widely adopted by nations over the next five years. They will use a combination of electronic finger-scanning, face recognition and iris scans to verify the identity of the carrier.

If sufficient countries' national identity cards are also equipped with biometric data about the card carrier (as the UK's planned new identity cards will be), such documents could also be used to control entry to business events such as conferences and trade shows, particularly those of a politically or commercially sensitive nature.

However, many people believe that the introduction of biometric technology for this purpose is premature. They believe that the technology is not yet sufficiently accurate to avoid mismatches in numbers that will effectively flood immigration services with so many false alarms that the individual traveller will experience extensive delays at points of entry and exit.


5. USE OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY
Some of the most remarkable advances in technology over the next five years will be seen in the field of mobile technology, made possible by wireless Internet access. This technology will be of direct benefit to business travellers on the move, as well as to those attending and managing conferences and exhibitions. Company Barclaycard's latest annual Travel in Business Survey of over 2,500 business people showed that 51% of the business travellers surveyed believed that the ability to 'access e-mail on the move' is the technology which will have the biggest impact on business travel in 2004. It will allow them to eliminate wasted time, for example, time spent in airport lounges. The same survey also identified the following technologies to also to have a positive impact on business travel in the year ahead:

• Laptop and mobile power points (31%)
• In-car satellite navigation (25%)
• Broadband on planes and trains (20%)

By 2009, Wi-Fi and Broadband Internet will be available in almost all public meeting spaces, providing easy-to-use, low-cost, high-speed Internet access through a variety of devices including mobile phones, PDA's and wireless notebook computers. Wi-Fi deployment in conference centres and large meeting hotels is already proliferating, and even coffee shops and fast-food restaurants such as McDonalds, are starting to provide 'free' Wi-Fi access.

Hotels are already leading the way in making wireless Internet access available to business travellers. In 2003, Marriott completed its initial rollout of wireless high-speed Internet access to 400 hotels in the UK, Germany, the US, and Canada. This was the largest deployment of wireless high-speed Internet access in the hotel industry, bringing wireless service to guests staying at selected Marriott, Renaissance, Courtyard, Residence Inn, Towneplace Suites, Fairfield Inn and SpringHill Suites hotels. Wireless high-speed Internet access is available in hotel lobbies, meeting rooms and public spaces.

Lou Paladeau, Marriott's Vice-President, Technology Business Development, was quoted as saying:

"Whether it's wireless access in the public space or a high-speed Internet connection in the guestroom, customers are making decisions about where they stay, based on high-speed Internet access availability. In the near future, if business travel guests can't get high-speed Internet access, you won't get them in the door".

Transport providers are set to follow the trend towards providing mobile Internet access. GNER (Great North Eastern Railway), for example, is aiming to be the first UK's train operator to offer passengers wireless Internet access on the move, overcoming the challenge of providing uninterrupted coverage whilst travelling at high speed.

Wi-Fi in the sky? Assuming that it can be demonstrated to passengers that airborne wireless connectivity will be secure and reasonably priced, and that concerns that they might emit radio waves that could interfere with the plane's communication and navigation systems can be assuaged, it is safe to assume that by 2009, in-flight Wi-Fi services will also be an established reality. Connexion by Boeing is one initiative aiming to provide such services, by using satellite connections at many megabits per second (Mbps) to connect a plane to the terrestrial Internet. Passengers will then get access, at speeds expected to be in the region of 156Kbps, for use with laptops and other Wi-Fi enabled devices such as PDA's.

Beginning in 2004 with early-adopters such as Emirate Airlines, the next five years should see passengers with Wi-Fi enabled laptops being given the option of sending e-mails, surfing the Internet, viewing broadcast TV channels and making in-flight telephone calls using Wi-Fi VoIP (Voiceover Internet Protocol) phones.



SECTION B: TRAVEL
Whether for business or leisure, more and more of us will be on the move in the years ahead. The European Commission has forecast a 24% increase in demand for passenger transport by 2010.

How will this increased demand be met, particularly in overcrowded Europe?

This section examines the principal trends that will characterise transport for the purposes of business travel in the five years ahead.


6. USE OF LOW-COST AIRLINES

6.1 Growing Use of Low-Cost Airlines for Business Travel
Part of the rapid growth in air travel generally will be stimulated by the expansion of low-cost airlines in Europe and beyond. A recent report, Impact of Low-Cost Airlines, by Mercer Management Consulting, predicted that, thanks to their superior business design for inexpensive direct flights, low-cost airlines will expand their European market share from the present 5% to 25% by 2010, thereby establishing themselves on a long-term basis.

What is certain is that there will be more use of budget carriers for business travel. Research published on 23rd February 2004, by American Express; found that 81% of corporate travellers regarded budget airlines as a 'generally accepted' way of travelling to business appointments. However, 57% of those questioned used budget airlines for less than a quarter of their business travel.

The Company Barclaycard Travel in Business Survey 2003/4 showed that of those who fly with low cost airlines, 95% are very satisfied and would use low cost services again. The main reasons for liking low cost airlines are as follows:

• To manage costs (67%)
• Because of the location of regional airports (39%)
• Due to availability of flights (23%)

6.2 Expansion Eastwards in an Enlarged European Union
With the European Union admitting another 10 countries in 2004, a certain trend will be the growth in business travel between the East and the West of the continent. In anticipation of this, the low-cost airlines are looking Eastward for new opportunities. All of the eight Eastern European accession states [Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia] are within single-flight reach of the UK, one of the main markets for low-cost air travel, and the next five years will see growth in the number of low-cost airline routes between Eastern and Western Europe.

Within Central and Eastern Europe itself, budget airlines will continue to expand, partly driven by the growth in East-West, West-East business travel generated by the new accession countries' membership of the European Union. In preparation for that development, the low-cost airlines have significantly strengthened their market positions in many of the new Member States. For example, in the Czech Republic, five new low-cost airlines entered the market in 2003 offering new routes to Italy, Germany and Great Britain:

• Germanwings
• Volareweb.com
• Snowflake
• Jet2.com
• FlyBe

They joined EasyJet, currently the largest low-cost airline operating in the Czech Republic, followed by BMI Baby.

In addition, SkyEurope Airlines, Central Europe's leading low fare airline, which is already present in Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Croatia, recently announced that it will enter the Polish market on 1st May 2004, investing $US 20 million to develop its operation in that country. With its main operations out of Vienna-Bratislava and Budapest airports, SkyEurope's new routes will include Warsaw to Budapest and Vienna-Bratislava.


6.3 Expansion in the Asia-Pacific Region
Once regarded as an unsuitable model for travel in Asia, low-cost carriers are already making quick in-roads in that region, with competitive service, creative amenities, and less expensive fares. The Asia-Pacific Low Cost Airline Symposium, held in Singapore in February 2004, concluded that the rapid emergence of low cost airlines as a significant force in the Asia-Pacific will be a catalyst for a 'regulatory revolution', leading to expansive liberalisation in that region and encouraging the progressive establishment of multi-lateral open-skies arrangements, over the next three years. The expansion of intra-Asian sectors of budget carriers such as AirAsia, Thai AirAsia, Nok Air and the Singapore Airlines unit Tiger Airways will facilitate business travel in that region.

A recent report by the aviation consultancy group, Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation, claims that the Asia-Pacific possesses the key demographics and infrastructure to support the growth of low cost airlines, with 743 paved airports; 235 cities with populations exceeding 500,000 (many currently unserved by international flights); a heavy reliance on business travel and tourism for GDP growth; and high Internet penetration in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore.


7. USE OF HIGH-SPEED TRAINS
With the environmental impacts of business travel already coming under growing scrutiny from the international green lobby movement, this trend will inevitably intensify by 2009. Business travel by air will continue to be a particular target for environmentalists. The glare of the spotlight is already being aimed at the levels of carbon dioxide emissions it generates and its impact on global warming.

Governments across Europe and beyond are already under considerable pressure to raise air ticket prices by imposing 'climate protection charges' for aircraft taking off and landing within European countries. Pressure is also growing to divert resources into encouraging a shift from air to high-speed rail for domestic travel and intra-European journeys. As a consequence, European railways will increasingly be in competition with airlines, especially on the lucrative, heavily used long-distance routes (approximately 400 to 700 km).

The advent of the high-speed rail network in Europe has led to reduced journey times and has proved to be more than capable of competing with air travel. For example, in some areas of France, domestic air traffic figures were completely decimated following the introduction of TGV (Train à Grane Vitesse) routes. In that country, every TGV line so far built has seen a huge modal shift from road and air to rail. In Germany too, high-speed rail travel has proved to be a formidable competitor for the airlines. Lufthansa scrapped its schedules on the important South-North Frankfurt-Köln communication axis, when high-speed train travel times on that 226km route fell from 2 hours 15mins to around one hour.

In line with European Commission policy to rebalance transport modes in favour of rail, the next five years will see continuing investment in Europe's high-speed rail network, focusing on removing bottlenecks from the system by connecting up cross-border lines and surmounting physical obstacles such as the Alps and the Pyrenees. The result will be the creation of a Trans-European Rail Network system, facilitating international travel for both leisure and business purposes.

7.1 Where Will the New High-Speed Lines Go ?

France
New schemes will ensure that France's high-speed network construction continues until at least 2010, extending further into neighbouring countries.

By 2007, there will be a 320km line linking Paris and Eastern France, taking in important population centres in the East of the country including Nancy and Metz. Phase 1 of the new line will run from the outskirts of Paris to Baudrecourt, near Metz. Phase 2 will allow TGV's to run at full speed to Strasbourg. This would allow the SNCF (Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer) to implement its long-term plans for through services via the Rhine Bridge to link up with the important commercial centres of Stuttgart and Frankfurt.

Following the overwhelming success of the TGV Mediterranee from Paris to Marseille, opened in June 2001, the SNCF is looking to extend the network in the South and South East of France, notably in the form of a new line between Aix-en-Provence and St Raphael on the Cote d'Azur. This would considerably shorten journey times to and from key conference and incentive destinations on the French Riviera such as Nice and Cannes. However, the mountainous terrain and vigorous local opposition could make this project prohibitively expensive.

Also in the pipeline is the project to extend the TGV Languedoc-Roussillon beyond Montpellier to Perpignan and then to connect up with the Spanish high-speed network. When this line is built TGV's will link Paris with Barcelona in just 4 hours 30 minutes.

Spain
The Spanish government has allocated €41 billion for the construction of new rail infrastructure before 2007. It intends that all provincial cities will be less than 4 hours travelling time from Madrid, and 6 hours 30 minutes from Barcelona.

The 651km corridor between Madrid, Barcelona and onto the French border near Perpignan has been a prime target for modification / expansion because 5.6 million passengers are expected to be attracted to its services. Also under serious investigation, is a new line to connect Madrid, via Castilla la Mancha, with Valencia, Alicante and Murcia.

In 2002, the Spanish and Portuguese governments agreed to pursue a future high-speed link between the capitals of Madrid and Lisbon.

Italy
The Italian government is committed to spending €28.8 billion to construct a network of high-speed lines that could reach 1,000km by 2008. The introduction of the latest generation of high-speed trains, the ETR500, heralded a complete re-branding of the country's high-speed network in an effort to reflect its integration into the wider European rail system.

A major feature of the scheme is to upgrade the existing high-speed Rome-Florence line, known as the 'Direttissima'. Major expansion will also be undertaken on the Milan-Naples, Turin-Milan-Venice and Genoa-Po Valley via Terzo Valico routes. Connections with existing lines will be provided at Novara, reaching Malpensa Airport in time for the 2006 Winter Olympics. By 2010, a new line from Milan to Genoa is planned, requiring a 1.6km tunnel through the mountains to link the Port of Genoa to the existing rail system.


8. USE OF INNOVATIVE MEANS OF TRANSPORT
In the next few years, two major new options for international travel will be launched and the business travel, conference and incentives industry will be well placed to benefit from them both.


8.1 The A380 Airbus
The largest, most advanced and most efficient commercial airliner ever conceived, the A380 Airbus is part of the airlines' solution to growing demand for air travel.

The A380, which will seat 555 passengers in a typical three-class interior layout, will enter airline service in 2006, as the world's only twin-deck, four-aisle airliner. It will allow airlines a really competitive advantage in passenger comfort. The main deck of the A380 is the widest in the world. Its floor area has 49% extra floor space and 35% additional seats than the 747-400. Airlines can make their seats wider and provide each seat with its own separate armrest, a frequent passenger demand.

Although the lower deck will be reserved primarily for cargo, it could be outfitted for special passenger uses such as sleeper cabins, business centres, conference rooms or even child care service. There is yet more space for more passenger amenities or seats, to make the aircraft more comfortable and so more attractive to passengers in economy, club or first class.

Whilst the A380 will be able to fly a distance of over 10,000 miles, the plane's usefulness will not be limited to long-haul flights. For instance, many flights within Japan are among the highest in passenger capacity and would be well suited for A380 service, despite their short distances.

Due to recent technological advances, Airbus claims the A380 will be a more efficient plane than its rival, the 747. They maintain that the A380 will use 20% less fuel and will fly more quietly and cheaper, in a more environmentally friendly manner than the 747. The airlines, at least, seem to be impressed. So far, 11 customers have announced orders for A380 airliners:

• Singapore Airlines (Launch customer with an order for 10 aircraft)
• Lufthansa (15)
• Emirates (43)
• Air France (10)
• Qantas (12)
• Malaysia Airlines (6)
• Virgin Atlantic (6)
• International Lease Finance (10)
• Qatar Airways (2)
• Korean Air (5).

The first A380 is scheduled to take flight in September 2004 and is set to enter commercial service as early as October 2005 (with Singapore Airlines).


8.2 The Queen Mary II
The Queen Mary II is the largest, tallest, longest and widest ship ever built. It is, in reality, an extravagant floating resort. Cunard's new flagship features sweeping staircases, expansive promenades and luxurious accommodation for 2,620 passengers. The Queen Mary II's facilities will make it an attractive new incentive and conference venue. These include:

• 10 dining venues, including the only shipboard restaurant by celebrity chef Todd English
• The only Canyon Ranch SpaClub at sea
• The world's first planetarium at sea
• The largest ballroom at sea
• The largest library at sea
• The largest wine collection at sea
• A Veuve Clicquot Champagne Bar, along with several other elegant bars and showrooms
• A two-story theatre
• Casino
• Five indoor and outdoor swimming pools
• Hot tubs
• Boutiques
• Extensive children's facilities.

Most importantly, there are elaborate conference facilities, with venues catering for up to 1,000 delegates.

In 2004, her inaugural year, the ship will offer 13 transatlantic crossings as she takes over the role as Cunard's transatlantic liner that is currently operated by her sister ship, Queen Elizabeth II.


CONCLUSION
The on-going digital revolution will help meetings, incentives and business travel professionals to work faster, better, and more cheaply. Use of the Internet will continue to drive down business costs and increase efficiency.

The Internet, in particular, offers the prospect of suppliers being able to communicate with buyers and provide levels of service impossible to achieve using the telephone, television and every other communication technology that we know. On-going advances of the type discussed in this report mean that meeting planners and convention bureaux, for example, are now in a position to stay in close communication with their customers, sponsors, suppliers and stakeholders in the business events.

However, the blaze of technological progress described in these pages will not blind us to the fact that the human touch is indispensable to the work we do. The meetings and incentives industry has always been, and will continue to be, one founded on relationships based on trust between individuals.

In the years ahead, technology will be used not only to improve efficiency, productivity and cost savings for the conference, incentives and business travel sectors, but will also enable us to enhance human relationships within our industry. Suppliers and buyers alike fully understand that site selection, for example, is still about relationships, and that most business is done only after two or more human beings have spoken to each other.

The advances in technology described in this report will liberate more of us to concentrate on the essentially human aspects of our business. Technology will also be the key to enabling us to spend more time on the truly professional aspects of our work, for example, by focusing on demonstrating return on investment and the adult educational content of meetings, rather than purely on logistics. Or, as Ed Tromczynski, President of PlanSoft, an on-line meeting management provider, has observed, technology allows us "to be more brains that brawn".

Despite, or perhaps because of, the ever-onward march of technological progress, the symbol of our industry in the future will continue to be the handshake, and not the click of a mouse.


SOURCES & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Our gratitude is due to those organisations and publications whose data and information have proved invaluable in the production of this report. We would like to sincerely thank the following:

American Express Corporate Travel Survey 2004

Company Barclaycard Travel in Business Survey 2003/4

Convene, June 2003

The Economist Technology Quarterly, 06/12/03

Impact of Low-Cost Airlines, Mercer Management Consulting, 2002

Insurance Conference Planner, 01/01/03

Marriott Online Headlines, July 2003

MPI Futurewatch Survey 2004

Online Corporate Travel Update, PhoCusWright.Inc, December 2003

Online Incentives: The Fast, Flexible Motivation Solution, by Craig Miller, 2003

Travel Distribution in 2007: the profitability constellation, IBM Business Consulting Services, 2003

www.railway-technology.com

www.travelclick.net

Corbin Ball, CMP, Corbin Ball Associates www.corbinball.com


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO ROB DAVIDSON
EIBTM wishes to thank Rob Davidson for compiling this second 5-Year Trends Report. The first report was launched in October 2003 and highlighted the Social & Political Trends for the coming five years.

Rob Davidson is EIBTM's Industry Analyst and also Senior Lecturer in Business Travel & Tourism at The University of Westminster. He is one of Europe's leading academic authorities on conference and incentive travel. Rob has written a wide range of reports, research papers and textbooks on these subjects, the latest being his much-acclaimed book, 'Business Travel', recently published by Pearson Education.

In addition, Rob has compiled many other industry reports in association with EIBTM. To view the series of reports, go to www.eibtm.com / About EIBTM / Industry Reports.