Global international travel demand will continue to grow in 2025, however, there is also greater uncertainty.
We think travel demand will continue to grow in 2025. Global international travel demand will be up 12% y-y and set to reach a record 1.75 billion arrivals in our baseline forecast.
Global inbound arrivals are now effectively recovered to the same level as the prior peak in 2019 and 2025 will see new record levels being reached across most destinations.
However, there is also greater uncertainty going into 2025, with risks skewed to the downside.
In this report, we discuss the outlook for tourism in 2025, addressing five key questions:
- What are the key drivers and risks of global travel growth?
- How will the policies of the Trump administration impact global travel demand? President Trump’s second term adds to uncertainty in policy, trade, international relations and travel sentiment in 2025.
An initial boost to US outbound travel is expected from the income boost delivered by expected tax cuts, as well as the affordability gains as the dollar will remain strong. But the impacts on prices from tariffs have the potential to outweigh any gains over time.
- Will the recovery of Chinese outbound travel continue, and when will it reach pre-pandemic levels? In 2024, China outbound trips sit 33% below 2019 levels, up from 57% below in 2023. In 2025, Chinese outbound travel will continue on an upward trajectory as capacity levels continue to be restored and economic fundamentals improve, but there will remain some significant differences from pre-pandemic trends.
- How will higher prices influence travel demand? Prices are set to remain significantly higher next year and although consumers have continued to prioritise travel, data has begun to suggest that prices are becoming an increasingly important consideration when making travel decisions.
- How does the issue of overtourism manifest in various destinations, and how will it influence the tourism landscape? The strong recovery in travel volumes and spending from the pandemic has been largely welcomed, but it has led to some tourism-hot spots seeing a disproportionately larger share of tourists which has once again raised the issue of overtourism.
In the meantime, there remain significant opportunities for a wide range of destinations and businesses as many travellers also express a desire for new unique and authentic experiences.
Download the full report to uncover the complete analysis, as well as how other trends, including geopolitical tensions, business travel, sustainable travel and AI, will influence the tourism outlook for 2025.
