Global growth is expected to decline and downside risks to intensify as major policy shifts unfold.

After enduring a prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks, the global economy appeared to have stabilized, with steady yet underwhelming growth rates.

However, the landscape has changed as governments around the world reorder policy priorities and uncertainties have climbed to new highs.

Forecasts for global growth have been revised markedly down compared with the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, reflecting effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January.

Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook, amid escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments. Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could lead to even tighter global financial conditions.

Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardize progress toward a more resilient global economy.

At this critical juncture, countries should work constructively to promote a stable and predictable trade environment and to facilitate international cooperation, while addressing policy gaps and structural imbalances at home. This will help secure both internal and external economic stability.

To stimulate growth and ease fiscal pressures, policies that promote healthy aging and enhance labor force participation among older individuals and women could be implemented, as discussed in Chapter 2. Additionally, productivity growth can be fostered with better integration of migrants and refugees and mitigation of skill mismatches, as detailed in Chapter 3.

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The estimates and projections in the April 2025 WEO Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.