But now we must accept it, the travel world has been turned upside down and how can we get back to a normal steady state and how does that happen? Welcome the seven stages of the new normal, writes Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, principal, 777 Partners.

Timothy O’Neil-Dunne shares his thoughts on the seven stages of getting back to the New Normal

There is an expectation mostly driven by hope – which we all know is not a strategy – that the current global lock down is temporary and that we will emerge the other side stronger, better and, well, normal.

That is not the case. I hope that somehow, I will end up eating these words but I don’t believe so. We – yes all of us – will have to go through a cycle of pain. How we manage the quantitative aspects of this crisis will depend on what our future looks like. I have therefore prepared a chart of the seven stages we must pass through.

Here are the 7 stages.

Stage 1 – Denial: December 2019–January 2020
When first reports of the Wuhan Virus emerged, there was a clear expectation that it would be contained just like SARS and H1N1 before it. The mechanisms worked well then – it’s a Chinese problem they must deal with it. No cancellations or refunds permitted – it’s flu for heaven sake. The mission is to ignore the problem and wish it away. China admits it has a problem. Cases start to seep out of China particularly during the Lunar New Year season.

Stage 2 – OMG/Panic: February to late March 2020
When the traffic bookings start to fall off and the cancellations start flooding in, panic starts. Slash schedules and costs. First line of defense? Don’t panic. That lasts for only a short time. Borders close, cases mount – death toll soars. Airlines start pulling in credit lines and setting up new ones. Appeals start to the governments for help.

As cases mount – “free changes now become the norm”. Appeals for massive immediate bail outs are appearing every day. Doomsday scenarios start to appear. Mass layoffs start. Airlines go full speed to stop. There are no cures, but way worse there are not enough medical resources. Testing is still not happening on any widescale. We learn new terms: Ventilators, Social Distancing, Gaslighting. New heroes emerge – medical professionals, yes even grocery workers. The economy of just about every nation simply shuts down.

Stage 3 – Repatriation and all ahead stop. End of March 2020.
We accept the situation. Layoffs are universal. Airlines are too big to fail (or so they tell their governments).

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