Recovery will vary regionally and a new global economic structure is likely to emerge.

The Q3 2009 edition of the Global Economic Outlook (GEO), the quarterly publication from Deloitte Research, a subsidiary of Deloitte Services LP in the United States, outlines the shape of the economic recovery.

Highlights from the GEO Q3 issue include:

• A look at the nature of the recovery including the likely emerging structure of the global economy, and how the roles of China and the United States will likely reverse: the rest of the world will increasingly look to China to stimulate global growth.
• The outlook for commodity prices — a central issue of concern in the pre-crisis world.
• The difficult journey ahead for the U.S. economy as the current recession nears its conclusion.
• The encouraging signs and the tough times ahead for the Eurozone. The report also finds hope for the Central and Eastern European region as the crisis has helped to foster reforms, making investors more aware of the great diversity of the region.
• The positive indicators for the UK economy, with some return to growth likely in 2010. But uncertainties still abound and the recovery may well be patchy.
• The Indian economy and how the pall is lifting, partly due to the recent elections setting the stage for economic renewal. For Japan and Australia, while there are some reasons to cheer, there are still significant concerns to address.
• Finally, a perspective on China and Brazil — both weathering the storm far better than other countries — with China set for quick recovery following aggressive monetary policy and Brazil emerging triumphant against inflation.

Quotes

Attributed to Ira Kalish, Director of Global Economics, Deloitte Research, a subsidiary of Deloitte Services LP:

"Today, the zeitgeist has shifted toward a discussion about the shape of the recovery, whether recovery will bring inflation, and how policymakers will unwind the massive interventions that they have undertaken. Our latest report focuses on the road ahead."

"As a consequence of this shift, the global economy will change. The rest of the world will not look to the United States to stimulate growth—at least not as much as in the past. Instead, they will increasingly look to China and, to a lesser extent, other large emerging markets."

For additional quotes and to read the full report, please visit www.deloitte.com/economic-outlook

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