The Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports stated that, in a worst-case scenario, Thailand could lose more than 40 billion baht in tourism revenue if the closure of Middle Eastern airspace continues.

Ms. Natthriya Thaweevong, Deputy Minister of Tourism and Sports of Thailand, said that tourists from the Middle East and Europe have been greatly affected by the airspace closure due to the inability of many flights to operate.

Gulf airlines such as Emirates and Etihad Airways have only recently resumed a limited number of flights.

The Ministry of Tourism assessed the impact on the tourism industry using three scenarios: if Middle Eastern airspace remains closed for three, four, and eight weeks. Accordingly, if the airspace remains closed for eight weeks or longer, the number of foreign tourists could decrease by 595,874, resulting in losses of 40.9 billion baht (approximately 33 trillion VND).

During that period, airlines are implementing summer flight schedules and are likely to increase airfares due to rising oil prices and fluctuating exchange rates. This will affect travelers across all markets, although shorter flights will see the least adjustment.

Additionally, she stated that Europe is expected to record higher inflation rates, which will reduce their purchasing power for tourism. This decline is mainly due to a decrease of 429,809 European tourists, 146,419 tourists from the Middle East, and 19,646 tourists from other regions.

In a baseline scenario of a four-week airspace closure, Thailand could lose 334,084 visitors, including 265,645 tourists from Europe and 68,439 from the Middle East, with a total tourism value of 21.5 billion baht. Under this scenario, airlines would adjust their flight schedules, while oil prices would not experience a significant surge.

The Ministry of Transport stated that long-haul flights will take longer than usual, leading to higher airfares, making them affordable only for high-spending travelers.

If the conflict lasts three weeks or less, the impact will be limited to a reduction of 210,973 visitors, including 188,129 European tourists and 22,844 from the Middle East. The estimated revenue loss is 13.1 billion baht.

From February 28 to March 5, 409 flights to and from Thailand were canceled, mostly from Suvarnabhumi Airport.

(Source)