What Q3 2025 reveals about the balance between revenue ambition and operational control in the US hotel sector.
So far, 2025 has been a year of continual adjustments to performance expectations for the US hospitality industry. Operators started the year with budgets built for growth. Expectations were set for 2025 to end stronger than it started. However, actual performance looks set to miss the mark.
The data tells a story of recalibration, where profitability depended less on room rate and more on operational rigor and forecasting accuracy.
The first three quarters of the year marked a critical transition, defined by more disciplined forecasting, sharper cost management, and a renewed focus on profit margins as travel patterns normalized and cost inflation persisted. The insights captured in this report show how operators adjusted their strategy to maintain profitability through these changes and what their decisions signal for 2026 planning.
Comparing year-to-date (YTD) figures, we see that the budgeted RevPAR for the first nine months averaged $131.37, with a GOP margin of 38.5%, compared to the actual RevPAR of $119.22 and a GOP margin of 37.7%.
By analyzing data from thousands of US hotels across all chain scales, regions, and market types using Actabl’s ProfitSword business intelligence platform, we can observe a strategic pivot from rate-driven growth in previous years to a focus on operational efficiency and profit margins.
In this report, we examine what US hoteliers budgeted for 2025, how they adjusted forecasts, and the actual performance figures for RevPAR, ADR, GOPPAR, and GOP%. We break this down by chain scale and consider how performance has varied by region.
Executive Summary
The Budget Shift: Initial 2025 budgets projected strong double-digit revenue growth (up to 15%), driven by occupancy gains, with Average Daily Rate (ADR) budgets remaining conservative (even showing slight declines). However, operators anticipated a decrease in gross operating profit margin (GOP%) of about one percentage point due to sticky cost inflation (labor, utilities, etc.).
The Forecast Revision: By mid-year, reality set in. Revenue expectations were revised down by 7–10% from initial budgets, and profit forecasts were cut even deeper. Hotels sold fewer room nights at slightly lower rates than planned, while cost pressures intensified.
The Actual Performance: Actual performance through Q3 2025 missed both the initial budgets and the revised forecasts across the board. Rooms revenue was 12% below budget, ADR was 4% below budget. However, the GOP margin held steady, falling just 1.2 percentage points below budget.
The 2026 Mandate: Future success depends on precision planning. The industry must move to dynamic, data-informed forecasting that ties demand, pricing, channel cost, and labor models together in a tighter, faster cadence to protect margins.
The Budget: High Revenue Confidence
Hotel budgets forecast double-digit revenue growth for 2025. Total rooms revenue and operating revenue were both expected to increase by 13% to 15% year over year. Rooms revenue was forecast to increase by 14.1% during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
However, 2025 budgets did not see growth being driven by higher rates. Budgeted ADR for 2025 was expected to show year-over-year declines of 1.9% to 2.4%.
Budget plans instead relied on higher occupancy and a slight strengthening of RevPAR, which was expected to grow 4%-6% for the year.
Closing Thought
The 2025 cycle offered valuable insight into how plans translate into performance. The lessons from this year’s results provide a foundation for smarter, faster, and more agile planning. The hotels that lead in 2026 will be those that forecast with precision, plan with intent, and act with agility, turning planning discipline into a lasting performance advantage.
Discover how Actabl’s solutions, including ProfitSword and Hotel Effectiveness, can help your teams plan with precision and act with confidence. Connect with us to start the conversation.
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