The chances are mounting that sometime soon you will be receiving a very unwelcome guest, at your establishment. It's highly likely that only a very small number will survive the experience without taking some very necessary and critical precautions.

Leading virologists are unanimous in their warnings that conditions are ripe for the emergence of a global avian flu pandemic -- one that could kill hundreds of millions of people around the world. The H5N1 virus is currently infecting country after country as infected birds complete their migrations and spread the disease to local flocks as well as to people.

An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. Three pandemics occurred in the previous century:

• "Spanish influenza"; in 1918 killed upwards of 100 million people worldwide.
• "Asian influenza"; in 1957 caused an estimated 2 million deaths. 
• "Hong Kong influenza"; in 1968 killed an estimated 1 million people.

The 1918 pandemic is considered one of the deadliest disease events in human history. The origin of the 1918 influenza was avian. Scientists today are concerned that a current avian flu virus, circulating in the bird populations of many countries, could mutate and start spreading easily from human to human. Because the virus is new, the human immune system will have no pre-existing immunity.

Pandemic survival plans are currently being developed by health jurisdictions all over the nation based on expected scenarios and there are certain aspects that will have profound effects on the hospitality industry.

The primary objective of any plan will be to contain the spread of the virus. The tool to achieve this will be quarantine. Travel restrictions will be imposed on anyone trying to move in or out of a stricken area. All activities which result in social gathering will be banned.

There's scarcely anyone who believes that such measures will be effective in the long run. This particular virus shows no symptoms for at least 2 days, so perfectly healthy looking people will be walking around spreading the virus to others. In February, 2003, a Chinese doctor, infected with SARS, checked into the Metropole Hospital in Hong Kong.

Within 24 hours, 12 people who stayed in the same hotel became infected with the disease and took it with them to Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Ireland, Canada, and the US.

In today's ever shrinking world it is virtually impossible to contain a killer so small that it's not much more than a blur under an electron microscope.

With curfews and travel bans in place it's a pretty safe bet that your vacancy rates will be in the double digits. Hospitals, on the other hand, will be overwhelmed and totally unable to handle the surge of patients. Even during a regular flu season hospitals have to turn people away.

This creates the problem of what to do with the stricken? How are they to be treated?

It won't take long for someone from FEMA or whoever is in charge, to look around and notice that the hospitality industry has millions of empty beds. And given that martial law or something like it will be in effect, you won't have much say when they decide to commandeer your facility for the afflicted.

However, this could represent an opportunity if you're proactive. Now is the time to approach your pandemic planning committee to initiate talks which could lead to a cooperative effort where everyone is a winner. If pre-existing agreements are already in place prior to the emergency, you're at a much lower risk of having your premises taken over (without proper compensation) for the national good.

But to the extent that travel is still permitted, who would want to stay in a hotel or a motel? The number one concern of all travellers will be that the previous guest(s) were infected and there are still some killer viruses lurking in the room. (The pillow would be a natural depository of
pathogens.)

It's important to note, however, that assuming that your guests were reassured about the safety of staying in your rooms, there would be a strong demand for lodging. When someone in a family is stricken, the safest, most responsible thing to do is to remove that person from contact with other family members. If that can't be done, and it probably can't because hospitals just won't have the room, the next best thing would be to remove the other healthy family members from the home.

The challenge then is to provide a level of sanitation that removes all fears in the minds of your guests.

This could mean NEW pillows for every stay. It would mean thoroughly cleaning each room with anti-viral cleansers. It would mean installing ultra violet air filters that kill germs and de-activate viruses. It would mean installing HEPA filters on air vents.

You could commission your association to develop standards  of sanitation which would require regular inspections as a condition for displaying their "H5N1 Free" seal.

We live in an age of "just in time" delivery of the goods that we need for day to day living. A pandemic will disrupt this flow of goods and cause additional havoc and hardship on everyone.

Given the high level of global traffic, the pandemic virus may spread rapidly, leaving little or no time to prepare.

Vaccines, antiviral agents and antibiotics to treat secondary infections will be in short supply and will be unequally distributed. It will take several months before any vaccine becomes available.

Medical facilities will be overwhelmed.

Widespread illness may result in sudden and potentially significant shortages of personnel to provide essential community services.

The effect of influenza on individual communities will be relatively prolonged when compared to other natural disasters, as it is expected that outbreaks will reoccur.

All businesses are vulnerable and will need to prepare business continuity plans if they hope to pull through.

The hopsitality industry is unique in therespect that through thoughtful planning and coordinated action, it should be able to weather this impending catastrophe and survive.

For more information please visit the following websites:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov, http://www.survivetheflu.com and http://www.who.int .