A 'new era' seems to be emerging in this first quarter of 2017, particularly after a hectic 2016 -- a year in which events of great impact occurred world-wide: Brexit, Dilma Roussef's impeachment, attacks in Brussels, Nice and Berlin, Aleppo's tragedy in Syria, Fidel Castro's death and the assassination of Russia's ambassador to Turkey, among other notorious events.

Closer to home in Latin America, how do we not mention the "Panama Papers" scandal and the billionaires' bribes that came to light; and according to the United States Department of Justice, Odebrecht would have paid to carry out works in Brazil, Guatemala, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Peru and the Dominican Republic.

Fortunately, there was one breath of fresh air amidst the crisis that Brazil was going through - when the country hosted the celebration of the Olympic Games under a climate of splendor - despite some failures which luckily did not overshadow the great celebration of world sports.

Of course, the signing of Peace in Colombia, which despite the internal political circumstances led to President Juan Manuel Santos to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. An active 2016 it was.
 
So What's Ahead in 2017?  The year is off to a vocal start and promises to be just as busy with high-impact news.

United States

A new President of the United States has taken the reigns -  a recognized businessman who has no record in the political life of the first world power.

Here in Latin America, and throughout the whole world, we are beginning to note that a major shift is taking place in the way of driving the destinies of the northern nation. Immigration is an issue leading this change, while the heads of countries such as Mexico, Germany and Australia seemed to have confirmed it in their own headline-making events. We'll see what happens next.

At the time of writing these lines, Silicon Valley and the US's high tech companies publicly protested the American President's "immigration veto." Ninety-six technological companies located in the cradle of the industry that have transformed people's lives worldwide have presented themselves as "amicus curiae" (third parties to a dispute, who voluntarily offer their opinion to collaborate with justice) in the Federal Court of Appeals of San Francisco that will resolve on the suspension to the mentioned immigration veto.

Europe

Europe will be a source significant news as well in 2017. The imminent electoral calendar seems to indicate the possibility of new high impact news.

On 15 March, citizens of the Netherlands will elect new deputies where the far right wing of the Freedom Party, the third most voted force in the previous elections, seeks to hold a referendum for the Netherlands to leave the EU ("Nexit").

In Great Britain, the British Prime Minister has said she wants to formalize the separation of the EU before the elections in France next April, aiming for the final separation to occur in early 2019.

In the aforementioned elections in France, the expectation is focused on how far will go the National Front of Marine Le Pen, the populist who also favors the separation of his country from the EU.

That same month of April, Turkey will express itself in the polls where it will define whether to continue with the parliamentary system or on the contrary, will incline to a presidential system, a decision that would put Erdogan in a position of almost absolute power.

The icing on the cake of this electoral panorama will undoubtedly be the general elections in Germany, the great European power, where it will be decided if Angela Merkel will remain in her fourth term. Her opponent,  Frauke Petry, is the leader of Alternative for Germany, right-wing populist party that is clearly against the migration policies of the current leader.

Austria and the Czech Republic will go through similar processes and in both cases with similar situations regarding the advance of the nationalist right.

So much to which those of us in Latin America must pay very close attention.

China

The other world locomotive has slowed its growth and it is unknown how this process will continue. With a history of 10% growth year over year, the country has seen its development rates decline since 2013 and it is estimated that 2016 closed in the order of 6.6%, the lowest level of expansion in the last quarter of the century.

Some analysts expect a decline in 2017 with a deepening in 2018. The most pessimistic people even fear for a supposed hard and emergency landing, as Mike Jakeman of the Intelligence Unit's Global Forecasting Team reports from the prestigious London-based magazine "The Economist". "In this case, there will be a global recession because China is fundamental to the entire planet," he warned.

Without going that far, the most relevant question will be how the relationship with the new administration of the United States evolves.

South America

The announced separation of the United States from the Pacific Alliance will undoubtedly be a blow to the trade treaty that gathers four major regional economies: Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia. The Pacific Alliance has been the trading block that has thrived in a world where most of the similar trade treaties have tended to crack.

A few of us remember that the existence of the Andean Community and Mercosur, still in force, has been hit by the crisis of its two largest partners: Brazil and Argentina. For those who need further explanation, Mercado Común del Sur, or Mercosur is a sub-regional bloc involving Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela -- which was suspended at the end of 2016.

The purpose was to promote free trade and fluid movement of goods, people and currency. Mercosur and the Andean Community of Nations are customs unions in a continuing process of South American integration.

At the time of writing this, the first leaders of the largest South American economies, President Temer and President Macri, are meeting in Brazil, where Mercosur will surely be among the main topics on the agenda. The revival of both economies within the framework of new political realities could resurrect an agreement that leads and fuels the growth of the economy throughout the region.

South America: hotels and tourism business in 2017

Given such a scenario, it may be strange to conclude in a positive vision of what to expect for this year 2017 in the hotel and tourism business.

However, the concrete signals from the major markets of the region (to which two of its main players -- Argentina and Brazil - - are starting to revive) via the figures of the last quarter of 2016 and the first month of this year  - are a clear positive sign.

With the exception of Venezuela, which unfortunately still shows no signs of starting to follow the long path to recovery, all South American markets are forecasted to grow in the business in the order of 4.7% while some countries in particular will do so in the order of 6 to 9%.

Investments will accompany this growth and in many cases the projects that have been in the pipeline will begin to take the shape anticipating that they will begin to materialize during the current year.

Investments in South America

Investors in the region will definitely play the leading role in the above mentioned investments but, in a situation like the one described above, what can be expected from international investors is that they may lose expectations for certain markets, even if they are traditional markets. However, what they will never lose is their vocation for business and the will to create and develop.

South America will undoubtedly be a region to consider. A market that, although in some years unpredictable and uncertain, will now become the alternative for those looking  for opportunities.

The return to the sources

The world has changed and will continue to do so more and more by leaps and bounds. Latin America will do so as well and is seen as an increasingly attractive alternative. Most countries in the region are well aware of the process that many countries in the northern hemisphere seem to want to start in order to safeguard what they have apparently lost.

The populism and nationalism of many Latin American leaders have been some of the most important reasons for the failure and delay in the development of their countries and, above all, the potential and opportunity for their people.

The focus, even when the realities can be hard and involve a lot of effort to carry forward, is on forgetting demagoguery that caused so much damage. Today, the goal is to recover the values of effort and grow again in a world that will be increasingly global - or it hardly will be at all.

ABOUT ARTURO GARCIA ROSA: With more than 35 years of experience in hospitality, Arturo is regarded as one of the leading authorities and advisors in the hotel, travel and tourism industries in Latin America. His publications, articles, and presentations reflect his passionate interest in keeping current with industry developments throughout Latin America, as well as his profound insights, vision, and in-depth knowledge of the industry.
 
In 1995 he founded RHC Hospitality Consulting (www.rhc.la), one of the most respected consulting firms based in Latin America. In 2008, Arturo founded SAHIC South America - the only annual Hotel & Tourism Investment event of its kind in Latin America, aimed at promoting hotel and tourism developments and related real-estate projects in the region.  In May 2017, he will host the first hotel investment conference in Cuba, SAHIC Cuba, in conjunction with the Cuba Ministry of Tourism.
 
Arturo's career is as extensive as it is prestigious in the hospitality sector in Latin America; he was President & Managing Director of Buenos Aires' renowned Alvear Palace Hotel from 1984 to 1995, where he led the project to rebrand and reposition one of most iconic hotels in the world.  He also served as President of Welcome Argentina (1992-1994) and was Founder and CEO of Destino Argentina (2003-2005), a non-profit organization whose mission is to promote Argentina as a travel destination. Arturo was also the force and brainpower behind the Argentina 2010 Travel & Tourism Plan, the first-ever destination marketing strategic plan for the country.
 
ABOUT SAHIC:
SAHIC, the premier Latin American hotel and tourism investment conference organizer promotes business and related real-estate projects in the region. The 10th anniversary edition of SAHIC South America is scheduled for September 13-14, 2017 and will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
 
The inaugural SAHIC Cuba, scheduled for May 15-16, 2017 will be the must-attend event, designed to promote the hotel, tourism and related real estate businesses in the island nation. 
 
SAHIC conferences are 'the' place to meet and network with the leading hotel chains and groups, investors, banks, mutual funds, developers, architects, and interior designers, regional government representatives and other decision makers in the industry. For more information, visit www.sahic.com.