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China's travel market tears into 2016.
Monday, 18th January 2016
Source : Maggie Rauch, Senior Research Analyst Phocuswright

Ctrip enters India; Qunar spars with airlines; BAT kingmakers take on travel; The Lunar New Year is still a month away, but China's online travel industry started the 2016 calendar year with fireworks.

In the space of just one week: Qunar's CEO announced his exit; Alibaba Group abandoned its corporate travel services partnership with Ctrip; and Qunar faced an airline revolt, with more than a dozen carriers closing their flagship stores on its platform.

To close out the week, Ctrip announced it would invest US$180 million to become the biggest shareholder in Indian online travel agency (OTA) MakeMyTrip, with a 27% stake.

A year ago, Ctrip had two major competitors: Expedia's eLong, which appeared to be past its prime; and Baidu-controlled Qunar, which had taken the fight down the funnel and straight to Ctrip, morphing from a metasearch site into an OTA.

Qunar's new strategy depended heavily on the online marketplace model popularized in China by Alibaba, and Ctrip made its own marketplace a bigger priority. Ctrip, Qunar and eLong were bleeding cash, thanks to rampant discounting to spur customer acquisition. That drag on profitability was certainly a factor in the two deals that reshaped China's online travel industry in 2015: Expedia's sale of eLong to Ctrip, and Baidu's forcing the consolidation that ultimately brought together Ctrip, Qunar and eLong.

With its two biggest competitors now neutralized, one might think Ctrip sits pretty. But in a hypercompetitive e- and m-commerce market, there is no rest for the weary. For starters, Ctrip will soon need to figure out how to leverage its new position vis-a-vis Qunar.

Ctrip holds a 45% stake in a company that is now facing a revolt from more than a dozen airlines, which shut down their flagship Qunar stores in reaction to Qunar's new "Pangolin" initiative. Pangolin lets travelers name their own price, and gives agents two hours to match it. The scheme was a hit with travelers, and drove up air ticket sales.

But airlines saw a chaotic system that further undercut their fares, and often let unscrupulous agents bubble up to the top of the auction. It exacerbated practices that airlines have complained about for years â€" agents offer cut-rate tickets with exorbitant change policies and fees, especially on routes that are notorious for cancellations and delays. That creates a customer service nightmare for airlines, all the while forcing them to be displayed side-by-side on Qunar with much higher fares than agents offer.

The airlines did not cite Pangolin by name, but pointed to customer complaints about change fees and communication with travelers about delays. Qunar's public response to the situation has been that airlines are simply trying to negotiate for their fares to show up first, regardless of price. That allows the OTA to appear like a consumer advocate, instead of an online travel platform looking to grow bookings fast.

The skirmishes at Qunar underscore the competitive nature of the Chinese online travel market, and the challenges that Ctrip still faces. The country's stock market and currency stumbled last week, and investors in Ctrip and Qunar (both NASDAQ-listed) are surely putting pressure on them to show profits.

Still, there is little doubt that it is a growth market for travel â€" especially for Chinese consumers' fast-growing outbound travel spend and for bookings via mobile devices, which will double as a share of China's travel market from 2015 to 2017. That upside has attracted the attention of wide-eyed entrepreneurs, as well as China's Internet giants.

By wedding itself to Baidu to consolidate its leading position in travel, Ctrip has become fully engaged in the war between Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent â€" the country's trio of e-commerce giants also known as BAT.

The MakeMyTrip deal is a notable first big investment in an overseas peer for Ctrip, which has invested in or acquired a wide range of properties, from niche OTAs to hotel and car rental companies.

Read the full story here.

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