How bad is bad? Travelport GDS is projecting that total air bookings across all GDSs in Asia Pacific will be down 13-15% this year. Asia, it feels, will fare slightly better with a projected 9-12% drop.

The numbers are not pretty though. For the month of December 2008 over December 2007, MIDT figures showed that total air bookings in Asia were down 13%, with some markets hurt more than others. Malaysia showed a decline of 20%, Singapore 11% and India five percent. Year to date December figures showed a 7% drop in Asia.

President and managing director-Asia Pacific, Brad Holman (pictured right), on a visit through Singapore, said January and February showed similar trends.  "We see the second half of the year pulling us back," he said.

In a shrinking market, and in particular in the three-horse GDS race for air bookings in the region, Holman said it was all about market share this year and good companies will gain market share.

"It's about the technology you provide, technology that reduces cost to service, and customer service. No one can afford to be complacent. The customer is challenged and is looking for alternatives."

He said Travelport was well-poised to gain market share in air bookings, its core transaction channel, and winning a profitable share from its competitors in the region. "We are not making any major cuts this year. We went through the cuts and integration with the acquisition of Worldspan and we came out of it strong and efficient."

It is also rolling out two product innovations this year – the Universal Desktop which will make it possible for travel agents to just have one desktop which has access to all content across GDSs and e-pricing, a best-fare shopping tool which came with the Worldspan acquisition.

"The Universal Desktop (to be launched year end) will mean one screen, one tool set, greater coverage of airlines and the ability to sell your content the way you want to sell it."

Added Holman, "Nothing changes around the fundamentals. GDSs still need to deliver content and be the most efficient in consolidating content. That service is not going to go away.

"But the Universal Desktop is a way of thinking differently about the business – it used to be proprietary systems, now it's open systems."

E-pricing, which will be rolled out in Asia in April, "will provide our customers the tool to search for the best possible fares for their customers", said Holman.

With customers now more price-conscious than ever, Holman sees this tool as timely. But while he agrees that price is a key stimulant to travel, "it's also about value and confidence".

Asked to take a stab at when travel recovery will take place, Holman said that "economists broadly agree there is usually a delay before -developments in the wider economy feed through to travel.

"Deutsche Bank chief economist Dr Norbert Walter suggested: ‘The travel industry lags behind the general economic cycle by six months to a year, although some sectors – for example, the events industry – will be suffering now.'

"As with everyone else, it is difficult to forecast budgets but we will continue to look out for market indicators to guide us in our forecasts."

Holman sees two short-term changes happening as a result of the current market conditions – a greater push towards consolidation in the travel agency sector and an acceleration in the move towards online travel.

"We have quite fragmented travel brands in Asia – from India to Malaysia to Singapore – and as airlines push towards zero commissions, if agents can't adapt their model at the same rate, they will find it harder to make it through.

"In this climate, too, online commerce is showing tremendous resilience."

Martin Symes, chief executive Wego, told WIT that the search site's traffic was up 24% in December compared with November." January was flat with December in traffic but up 10% for both searches and clicks-through to suppliers. We're also seeing a lot more interest in display advertising than before."

Yeoh Siew Hoon, one of Asia's most respected travel editors and commentators, writes a regular column on news, trends and issues in the hospitality industry for 4Hoteliers.com.

Siew Hoon, who has covered the tourism industry in Asia/Pacific for the past 20 years, runs SHY Ventures Pte Ltd. Her other writings can be found at www.thetransitcafe.com

Get your weekly cuppa of news, gossip, humour and opinion at the cafe for travel insiders.