In 2026 the fight for bookings will be fiercer than ever: Travel and hospitality businesses must now win over a more discerning, AI-armed traveler, while contending with an unstable global economy.
These external pressures are already impacting travel demand and moulding traveler behavior. Consumers remain highly motivated to travel but they are becoming more cautious. Affordability concerns and over-tourism pressures are pushing them to search for value across a wider mix of destinations and alternative travel windows.
Hoteliers must adapt to these changes offering highly personalized, segmented offers that maximize the appealing characteristics of their property, and then distribute them across a broader range of channels than ever before.
If you can establish the right technological foundations to operate in this complex and uncertain environment you will have the best shot at success in 2026; making the coming 12 months a key year for investment and transformation.
1. A turbulent travel and hospitality environment
Geopolitical and economic instability will continue to loom over the travel industry, just like any other. ‘Business as usual’ isn’t returning any time soon, so you must be prepared to act with agility and confidence in times of disruption
The US market began 2025 in a relatively strong position but softened as the year progressed.
That slowdown is reflected in traveler behavior. Searches for one-night stays in North America accounted for more than 40% of all hotel searches in mid-August 2025, up from 33% in January 2023. The share of searches made within 28 days of arrival also climbed to 57% by mid-August 2025, compared with 50% in 2024 and 46% in 2023.
Travel intent in North America remains high, but lower consumer confidence is driving cautious behaviour, with consumers opting for shorter stays and holding out for last-minute deals.
This shift is a result of economic uncertainty, a weaker job market and volatile policies (like tariffs); alongside a backlash from international tourists (especially Canadians), to trade policies, and entry requirements into the US.
With no end in sight to sudden policy changes from the US, particularly concerning trade and visas, it is clear that geopolitical instability will be a key trend to watch, particularly with regards to the US.
Looking ahead, however, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to deliver a much-needed boost for US hoteliers, with early demand signals already showing promise for host cities.
But, instability isn’t limited to North America. As 2025 was drawing to a close, a diplomatic spat between Japan and China caused the Chinese government to advise against travel and multiple flight routes were cancelled, curtailing what had been strong inbound growth from Mainland China.
Other regions saw similar disruptions. A terrorist attack and brief conflict in Pakistan led to a sharp drop in resort occupancy, while a border skirmish weighed on tourism flows into Cambodia. And the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to unsettle travel patterns across Europe.
These disruptions show up in the data. Forecast prices for the next six months underscore this volatility, with wide regional dispersion in Year-on-Year (YoY) changes across H1 2026.
These disruptions show up in the data. Forecast prices for the next six months underscore this volatility, with wide regional dispersion in Year-on-Year (YoY) changes across H1 2026.
H1 2026 regional average pricing change YoY for a standard hotel room (USD)
There is a 20-percentage-point gap between the strongest and weakest regions. Asia and the Middle East are seeing average hotel prices up 9% for H1 2026, while Oceania shows an 11% decline compared with the first half of 2025.
This divergence mirrors the broader uncertainty facing the global travel sector. Geopolitical risks could intensify in 2026, with rising tension across the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, Eastern Europe, as well as increasing friction between the US and Venezuela.
The IMF noted in its October Economic Outlook that the World Uncertainty Index reached multi-year highs by August 2025.
Amid such uncertainty, hoteliers need systems that give a clear read on demand as it shifts. The hotels that can monitor changes in real time and adjust pricing or availability first are best positioned to capture opportunities when they appear.
2. Traveler taxes set to go upwards
Politics will hit travelers' wallets harder in 2026, with rising tourist taxes adding a premium to trips in a range of destinations
Unsurprisingly, the destinations most at risk of overtourism are seeing the highest rise in proposed tax hikes. So far, 2026 is set for:
- An executive order by the Trump administration to charge non-US residents for visits to National Parks to the tune of an additional $100 fee on top of existing charges and the requirement to purchase a $250 annual pass.
- A major increase in Kyoto’s tourism tax. The levy will go up by 300% for hotels priced between ¥50,000–¥100,000 per night and 900% for hotels that charge more than this.
- An anticipated increase to Japan’s exit tax, with a tripling rumored to be the most likely course and rising visa costs.
- A 12% bump to the VAT rate charged by the Dutch government for overnight accommodation.
- A rise in the Milan tourism tax before the 2026 Winter Olympics up to a maximum of €10 per night for a five-star hotel.
- A doubling of the tourist tax within Catalonia.
- A new measure that allows English mayors to raise revenues from overnight stays, while Edinburgh will introduce a tax of 5% of the value of accommodation.
Consumers are already approaching 2026 with financial caution. This added strain may shape some travel decisions, including destination choice, length of stay, and trip timing.
They also signal a broader shift in how governments view tourism. No longer seen as just an economic opportunity but an activity also that carries a public cost. And policymakers are increasingly willing to pass it on to visitors.
3. The dispersion of European seasonal demand
The strong return of consumer travel after COVID has been welcome news for the industry, but it has also created mounting pressure in many destinations.
Overtourism has moved near the top of local policy agendas and travelers are not ignoring these pressures either, with their behavior shifting in response.
The European Travel Commission’s Q3 report echoes this trend, noting that among Europe’s eight largest source markets, 28% intend to travel in different months over the next two years, primarily to avoid crowds.
Rising accommodation and flight prices across Europe are cementing this trend. For households already squeezed by the cost of living, peak summer travel (especially during school holidays) is becoming financially out of reach, forcing a migration to the more affordable shoulder seasons.
Our own data shows this change in seasonal patterns. Across five of Europe's most visited cities – Barcelona, Istanbul, London, Paris and Rome – average occupancy rates indicate that what used to be the high season is now less popular than the surrounding shoulder months.
Skyscanner’s consumer survey found that 32% of tourists had experienced a negative impact from overtourism and 34% were actively seeking quieter destinations. Meanwhile, 31% said they plan to visit major destinations in the shoulder seasons, with Indian and South Korean tourists leading this shift.
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