Airbus and Boeing have released their reports on the projected future of the global aviation industry.
The reports are notable for highlighting how increasingly important Asia is and that the industry is expected to continue growing in the foreseeable future.
Forecasting future demand is incredibly important for Airbus and Boeing, as they have to plan decades in advance with designing new aircraft and developing new technologies.
At the same time, it also takes years to expand manufacturing capacity to meet demand. The aviation analytics company, Cirium, anticipates 45,900 new aircraft deliveries by 2043 worth $3.3 trillion . Here are some of the key aviation trends by 2043.
1 Doubling of the global fleet
Global fleet to be 48,230 aircraft in 2043
- New deliveries: 42,430 (2024-2043)
- Order backlog: 13,070 (end 2023)
- Open demand: 20,440
By the end of 2023, the global fleet of commercial aircraft stood at 24,260, which is expected to double to 48,230 aircraft by the end of 2043. Of the fleet in 2043, 5,800 will be aging legacy jets in service today (Boeing estimates 6,195 to be legacy jets). This means that the airline industry will need to deliver another 42,430 aircraft.
By the end of 2023, the airline industry (mainly Boeing and Airbus) had backlogs of 13,070 aircraft. This leaves an open demand of around 20,440 aircraft. In all, Airbus expects there to be demand for 33,510 new deliveries over that period.
2 Leading demand markets
China will lead demand at 9,520 aircraft
- Asia-Pacific (inc. China): 19,510
- North America: 7,100
- Europe: 8,050
China is expected to be the largest single market for new aircraft deliveries until 2043 (opening a great opportunity for COMAC). Of the expected 33,510 deliveries, China is expected to receive 9,520. No other country was itemized by Airbus (the United States is bundled with Canada as North America and is expected to receive 7,100 new aircraft).
The rest of the Asia Pacific (excluding the Middle East and China) is expected to take 9,990 new aircraft, and Europe (with Russia) will receive 8,050 new aircraft.
The Middle East follows at 3,740, and Latin America is to get 2,570. Africa is expected to be the smallest regional market with a demand for 1,460 new aircraft (even though Africa will be the engine of population growth).
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