Double digit % increases in Brazilian business travel spending predicted.
Thursday, 24th May 2012
Source : Global Business Travel Association
Inaugural survey sees business travel spending contributing to economic growth and job creation in Brazil.

The Global Business Travel Association announces the results of its inaugural GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil, sponsored by VISA. The GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil includes the GBTA Business Travel Index™ (GBTA BTI™). The GBTA BTI™ provides a way to distill market performance and the outlook for business travel into a single metric that can be tracked over time.

  • Brazilian business travel spending will increase by 13% in 2012 and [15.7%] in 2013, to US$31.1 billion and US$36 billion respectively
    - Significant increases in real, actual travel
    - Price rises impact [peripheral]
  • Real GDP in Brazil will increase by 3.8% in 2012 and nearly 5% in 2013
  • Brazilian business travel spending shows a strong correlation with domestic job growth with BTS one quarter ahead of subsequent job creation
  • By 2013, domestic business travel spending in Brazil will constitute 78% of the overall total
  • International, outbound business travel spending will record double digit growth levels over the next two years and reach US$7.3 billion by the end of 2013
  • Brazil forecast to rise from ninth to eighth in the BTS world rankings
  • GBTA BTI™ will reach 274 by the end of 2012 and 318 by the end of 2013
Michael W. McCormick, Executive Director and COO of GBTA, commented:

"The resounding success of GBTA's other business travel research to date has made it clear that strong demand exists for such data and with the growth of the Brazilian market, it was the obvious country to focus on next. This inaugural report has highlighted some fascinating trends and bodes well for Brazil's continued economic expansion and growth in the country's international trade. This report is the first in a series being undertaken by GBTA and we hope that the analysis of Brazil and the forthcoming reports on China and Western Europe will help to illuminate the links between business travel spending and the country's economic drivers."

Brazilian business travel spending has been expanding at an impressive rate over the past decade and as Brazil's economy continues to expand GBTA expects the business travel market to experience significant growth. According to the first GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil, business travel spending in Brazil will experience double digit growth for the next two years. The vast majority of this increase in travel expenditure can be attributed to a real rise in the amount of travel spend, though a small proportion is the result of rising travel prices.

The Brazilian economy was not isolated from the financial crisis; however 2012 is set to see the economy recover and for real GDP levels to grow significantly. The measures introduced by the Brazilian government and the central bank, alongside a strengthening in domestic demand, lead us to a forecast of 3.8% growth in real GDP in 2012.

Wellington Costa, President of GBTA Brazil remarked:

"Business travel is crucial to economic growth, and with its vibrant economy, Brazil is poised to become a major business travel hub in the next few years. The growth of the business travel market has been remarkable, especially in light of the economic slowdown of 2008-9. In fact, Brazil's business travel spend currently ranks ninth in the world at US$28 billion, but this report shows that it will overtake its closest competitor within the next three years." 

The report also details a strong correlation between Brazilian job growth and travel expenditure. GBTA's analysis of the Brazilian and the US markets indicates that domestic business travel spending is ahead of gains in job creation by approximately one quarter. These findings suggest that the analysis of a country's business travel spending can also be a significant economic indicator regarding future employment levels and business confidence.

Domestic business travel spending in Brazil makes up a large proportion of the country's total travel expenditure. The amount spent on domestic travel is four times that of international outbound travel in 2012, and by 2013 it is expected that domestic travel spending will contribute 78% of the total business travel spend.

Whilst domestic business travel spending makes up a large proportion of total spending, GBTA forecasts that International outbound business travel spend will return to double digit rates this year and continue this trend in 2013. The rate of growth in international outbound business travel spending declined slightly as a result of the global economic crisis, however as the Brazilian economy recovers it is expected that international outbound business travel spending will grow at a faster rate than domestic business travel spending.

The fourth quarter of 2011 saw the GBTA BTI™ come in at 238, after being relatively flat the previous three quarters. Compared to other countries, the Brazilian economy weathered the recession of 2008-09 well and the GBTA BTI™ reflects that, falling only 26 points over two quarters, from 2008 Q3 to 2009 Q1. By the second quarter of 2010 the index had surpassed its previous peak of 183.

GBTA BTI™ for Brazil is pointed to return to a stronger upward trajectory in 2012-2013 on the continued growth of the domestic and global economies. By the end of 2012 the GBTA BTI™ is expected to reach 274 and a year later GBTA predicts it will reach 318.

The GBTA BTI™ for Brazil has been derived from total business travel spending and an index base year of 2005 was chosen for consistency with GBTA BTI™ in other countries. Specifically, the GBTA BTI™ in Brazil is set equal to 100 in 2005 Q2.

Key Metrics

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About the GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil

The GBTA BTI™ Outlook projects aggregate business travel trends over the next eight quarters. The report tracks business travel spending in total and by domestic and outbound segments. It relates unfolding economic events at home and abroad to their resulting impacts on the Brazilian business travel market. GBTA BTI™ Outlook – Brazil Spring 2012 is the inaugural report in the semiannual series. Releases are published in the Spring and Fall.

The GBTA BTI™ Outlook uses an econometric model to better inform the forecast process.  The model explicitly relates measures of business travel spending, uniquely sourced from other GBTA Foundation research, to key economic and market drivers of Brazilian business travel including: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components; employment and unemployment; measures of business and consumer confidence; international trade, foreign direct investment and exchange rates; commodity and oil prices; inflation measures; productivity rates for business travel; International Air Transport Association (IATA) Passenger and Revenue Performance and Smith Travel Research (STR) Global Hotel Performance.

The Business Travel Outlook – Brazil is free of charge to all GBTA Members. Non-members may purchase the report through the GBTA Foundation at research@gbta.org.

About the GBTA Foundation 

The GBTA Foundation is the education and research foundation of the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the world's premier business travel and corporate meetings organization.

Collectively, GBTA's 5,000-plus members manage over $340 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures annually. GBTA provides its network of 17,000 business and government travel and meetings managers, as well as travel service providers, with networking events, news, education & professional development, research, and advocacy. The foundation was established in 1997 to support GBTA's members and the industry as a whole. As the leading education and research foundation in the business travel industry, the GBTA Foundation seeks to fund initiatives to advance the business travel profession. The GBTA Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization.

For more information, see www.gbta.org
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