As 2006 draws to a close - national tourism agency VisitBritain offers its forecast for the year ahead, these forecasts are dependent on normal circumstances prevailing and do not factor in unexpected events or crises.Domestic

17 million Brits (29  per cent of the population) are planning overnight trips over the festive period according to new research from VisitBritain, the national tourism agency. Of those, over four fifths  (85 per cent) are choosing to stay right here in their own country.

Tom Wright, VisitBritain's chief executive, says: "While airports will be packed this year as three million people jet overseas, more than five times as many British residents are deciding to avoid all the hassle and enjoy England instead. Check out the Enjoy England Great Ideas Guide for 2007 and our redesigned website, enjoyengland.com/ideas, for plenty to see and do over the holidays."

England as a destination has also grown in popularity over the last year with the number of Brits intending to take a domestic trip over the two week Christmas period rising from 17 per cent of the population in 2005 to 23 per cent this year.

In addition it seems more of us are willing to travel the distance to be with friends and loved ones in English destinations. 22 per cent of the UK adult population are planning overnight trips to visit friends and relatives in England over the coming fortnight, which is up from 12 per cent last year.

It seems the British are urbanites at heart with over half of us travelling to a large city over the festive period. The next most popular destinations are the countryside (28 per cent), small towns (22 per cent) and the seaside (15 per cent). 

The research also shows that those from East Anglia are most likely to take a festive holiday with a quarter of those surveyed from that area planning a break over the festive period. However, people from the North West are the most dedicated holiday goers with seven per cent planning to take three or more trips over the next two weeks.

For the coming year, Enjoy England's Great Ideas 2007 brochure and online activity at enjoyengland.com will continue to inspire and raise awareness of all that England offers for British visitors. Our commitment to raising awareness of England's rich range of quality destinations, attractions and accommodation will be reflected in new campaigns for Just Relax, outdoor England and families, complementing the ongoing Storybook England, Taste and City Culture initiatives. Enjoy England will also be launching brand new campaigns; England Rocks! and How We Built Britain.

We will ensure that participants of our Quality schemes get the full benefit of their membership by promoting only assessed establishments in our activities and drive forward initiatives to bring more of the tourism industry online through further development of enjoyengland.com. 

Inbound

Figures from the International Passenger Survey show that during the first ten months of 2006 the number of inbound visitors to the United Kingdom stood at 26.9 million, 6 per cent up on the equivalent period of 2005, with spending 8 per cent up on last year. Over much of 2006 spend has, for the first time in quite some while, been growing slightly ahead of visits. VisitBritain expects that in 2007 both the volume and value of inbound tourism will increase by 3.7 per cent compared with 2006. If achieved this would mean that 32.5 million overseas residents will visit Britain next year, spending around £15.8 billion. However, declining average spend per visit, driven by declining length of stay, has led to a ‘real terms' fall in inbound visitor spending despite record numbers of visitor arrivals. 

While the dry year in 2006 is good news in driving home the message that Britain is by no means always wet and foggy, the longer term threat of drought could threaten the gardens and landscapes that draw millions of visitors. Literary and film tourism in Britain looks set to be in the spotlight again in 2007 with the release of ‘The Golden Age', and the Lake District in particular, with the release of the ‘Miss Potter', a big attraction for the Japanese.

Growing accessibility from both India and China will help to allow further expansion in the number of visitors travelling to Britain from these important markets during 2007. EU expansion will be in the headlines right at the start of next year as both Romania and Bulgaria gain full membership status. It is likely that this will result in a number of new air routes opening up as both legacy and low-cost carriers try to take advantage of the new opportunities on offer. 

Changes to passport requirements from early next year could result in an increased proportion of US citizens owning a passport (thought to be little more than one-in-five at present). Clearly such a development would increase the size of the US population able to travel to Britain. The second phase of the Channel Tunnel High Speed Rail Link in 2007 will offer much improved service, reliability, journey times and connections. 

Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA)

The exceptional weather for most of this summer saw ABTA members reporting higher than average interest in domestic bookings with the Lake District and boating holidays performing particularly well. ABTA members will continue to concentrate on the domestic market in 2007 with the doubling of Air Passenger Duty expected to impact on air travel.

The other undoubted success story of 2006 for ABTA Members was cruising which outperformed the rest of the market and 2007 will see record numbers taking to the seas or rivers.

Association of British Professional Conference Organisers (ABPCO) and British Association of Conference Destinations (BACD)

The UK conference industry is in generally robust health in the midst of continuous change and fierce competition. Research suggests that the number of meetings, conferences and business events has increased somewhat over previous years, but that their duration and spend have declined, with the net revenue to conference venues in 2005 estimated at £10.3 billion, compared with a figure of £11.7 billion in 2004. In the main this fall was due to a reduction in the number of residential conferences. At an international level, the UK ranked fourth overall in tables showing those countries staging the most international association conventions and congresses. While this is still a healthy position, it is lower than it has been and underlines the need for vigorous marketing and cohesive support when bidding to attract such high-profile and high-yield business to the UK. Encouragingly, investment levels in the physical infrastructure continue at very high levels, suggesting optimism in the conference sector and confidence in its ability to provide appropriate commercial returns.

British Hospitality Association

The scene is set for continuing expansion of the industry (well over 100 new hotels in each of the last five years and as many planned for the future) and for improving occupancy rates. But London is already regarded as an expensive destination and the industry throughout the country must exercise caution in raising prices ahead of the market - especially at a time of intense global competition.

Coach Tourism Council

Planned increases in APD (Air Passenger Duty) and increasing delays at airports, are already having a beneficial effect on the UK coach tourism industry. Coach operators are reporting an increase in bookings for 2007 from within the UK and from visitors from outside Britain for short breaks and tours in the UK and Ireland as well as to mainland Europe.

This follows a good year for coaching in 2006 when excellent summer weather contributed to strong growth in the UK holiday market for the 175 coach companies who are members of the Coach Tourism Council, the industry body which promotes travel and tourism by coach.

Coach operators are continuing to invest in improving their services with more than a thousand new coaches - each costing more than £200,000 - joining coach fleets this year. The UK is a fantastic destination for a touring holiday and the best way to appreciate our heritage, culture and heritage is from the seat of a well-appointed, air conditioned coach, with a driver who literally offers each passenger a door-to-door service.

Hoeseasons

We are optimistic about the prospects for the UK in 2007, with several factors in our favour. The recent news that 2006 was the warmest year in the UK since records began bodes well for 2007; good weather is undoubtedly helpful, as holidaymakers are encouraged that they can experience hot and sunny conditions in this country. Secondly, we believe that memories of the airport chaos last summer, coupled with continuing security hassles and delays at airports, will lead to a reluctance to fly; in the late summer of 2006, we saw many people booking seaside holidays, especially in the south-west and south, and these areas are likely to sell early for 2007.

As ever, success will depend on delivering the kind of holidays that people want. Included in that are the kind of indoor facilities (pools, spas, etc) which have multiplied as a result of heavy investment over the pas ten years (so that holidaymakers can still enjoy themselves when the sun doesn't shine).

For 2007, we have continued our move towards offering more premium accommodation, and will for the first time publish a limited-edition premium 'Lodge Collection' brochure, featuring 5-star designer lodges, many with facilities such as hot tubs and spas.

Tourism Alliance

Although the final statistics will not be in for a couple of months it looks like 2006 will be another record year for the inbound tourism industry.

However, while global tourism is expected to increase by around 4.5% next year, there is considerable debate as to whether the UK will be able to match this growth. The main cause for concern is the substantial weakening in the value of the US Dollar against the Pound. The USA remains the UK's single most important source market and the rise in the number of Americans visiting the UK in 2006 was one of the main factors contributing to the increase in total inbound tourism revenue. If the Pound breaks the US$2 barrier, this will be a considerable psychological blow for American visitors who already consider the UK to be expensive. A high exchange rate will also create a further incentive for UK residents to holiday overseas which will put pressure on the domestic tourism industry.

The other main issue facing the industry next year is the cost of travelling to the UK. Air Passenger Duty will double on 1 February 2007 and the cost of visas to travel to the UK is set for a substantial increase on 1 April 2007. These cost increases will provide a substantial disincentive for overseas visitors to travel to the UK.

UKinbound

The weakness of the US Dollar throughout 2006 was probably the most significant factor affecting inbound tourism during a difficult year for the industry. Not only did this severely dampen demand in our biggest overseas market, North America, but it also had an adverse effect on exchange rates in other key markets. Once again we only saw real growth in Western Europe and the EU expansion states and, as welcome as this business is, it cannot replace the longer staying, higher spending, long haul visitors who stayed away and are sorely missed. 

Sadly, this scenario looks set to repeat itself in 2007. The collapse of the US Dollar towards the end of the year has left it trading at its lowest rate against the Pound for 14 years. Most analysts expect it to drop below the psychologically important $2 to the Pound barrier at any time and predict it will then fall quickly to around $2.20 before stabilising. This is a dreadful prospect for inbound tourism compounded by the doubling of APD from 1 February 2007 and the threat of yet further visa price increases next year.

These additional costs will make the UK too expensive for many potential overseas visitors and further compromises our already precarious position in what has become an extremely price sensitive and highly competitive global business. On a more positive note corporate business has held up well this year and we expect this to remain the case in 2007. Similarly the Euro looks set to remain strong during 2007 and we can only hope this will generate more business from Europe. Therefore 2007 will be another challenging year for our industry and whilst there may be a small increase in visitor numbers we see no realistic prospect of revenue growth at this time.

Visit London

The capital's visitor economy grew well during 2006 on the back of solid overseas visitor growth and strong spending by Londoners. As a result, whilst domestic visits from other parts of the UK into London remained weak, this was largely offset by Londoners and overseas visitor growth. In 2007, although we expect conditions to remain favourable, there are significant downside risks. The US market, particularly the weak dollar, is the most significant. A series of high profile openings and major events in 2007, such as the Grand Depart of the Tour De France, the opening of The O2 and the re-opening of the Royal Festival Hall should help further to boost London's national and international profile. This comes on top of the growing interest in the city as a result of the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

VisitScotland 


Scotland's tourism industry is looking ahead to a healthy 2007 with the value of UK tourism to Scotland set to reach £4.5bn. Much of the additional projected income is anticipated to come from international and business tourism. The total value of Scottish tourism in 2005 was £4.2 billion. Throughout 2006 occupancy rates have been encouraging, with visitor attractions showing a steady increases year on year. Scotland's main airports anticipate continued growth in passenger traffic for the coming year.

A Scottish Steering Group is looking at ways to maximise the benefits for Scotland of the 2012 Games including looking at how we can make the most of the potential tourism benefits. 

Visit Wales

Our five snapshot surveys of the tourism industry in 2006 revealed generally high levels of confidence and reports of increased business compared with 2005. Visit Wales advertising won gold medals in all five categories for which it was short-listed by the Chartered Institute of Marketing and also picked up a gold and a bronze from the Direct Marketing Association. These indicators along with steady improvement in product and services bode well for 2007.

The high point of the year will be Showcase Wales and the National Tourism Awards for Wales which take place in Llandudno on October 2-4. Showcase Wales is a massive opportunity for the country's tourism operators and service providers to meet more than 300 buyers and agents from all parts of the world. And the NTAW recognise best practice, holding up exemplars for the industry to emulate and thereby helping to raise standards generally.