Three charts illustrate how CO2 mitigation costs and inflationary pressures are dampening the aviation demand outlook, despite the receding pandemic.

Launched in May 2020, this air traffic forecast was originally designed as a response to pandemic uncertainties.

It has since evolved to cover other key factors: macroeconomic growth, levels of disposable income, and carbon mitigation costs. Now extended to the end of the decade, the forecast is updated regularly using the latest information.

Here is the outlook as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024:

Annual air travel demand remains on track to surpass the 2019 total this year, as measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—the number of paying passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled. This year’s third-quarter demand was in line with expectations, reaching 102% of 2019 value.

By 2030, we anticipate global RPK will reach 11.4 trillion in our base scenario, which would be 136% of 2019 volume. Meanwhile, several factors have contributed to changes in the forecasts for specific regions and countries.

A slightly improved macroeconomic forecast raised the 2030 demand outlook for North American intraregional travel by 1 percentage point vs. the previous quarter. This is equivalent to a nearly $1 billion revenue increase at current yields.

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