New forecasts issued today by the Tourism Forecasting Committee, (TFC) indicate that the value of inbound tourism is forecast to increase from $18.5 billion in 2005 to $32.1 billion in 2014, an average of 6.3 per cent annual growth.The April 2005 forecasts provide an outlook across all tourism sectors including domestic, international and outbound tourism for 2005 to 2014, and for the first time provide inbound and domestic tourism economic value forecasts.

Chairman of the Tourism Forecasting Committee, Bernard Salt said the forecasts aimed to assist in investment and marketing decision making for the sector and to assist in the formulation of public policy within the Australian tourism sector at both national and regional levels.

"The outlook for Australian tourism is positive over the next decade and the new forecasts provide a good indication of the growth opportunities that exist within the tourism sector," Mr Salt said.

"Growth in international visitor arrivals is expected to be strong this year, growing by 6.9 per cent to 5.6 million.

"Longer term international visitor arrivals are expected to grow by 5.8 per cent annually to around 9.3 million visitors in 2014, with much of the growth expected to come from markets such as China, the United States and emerging markets such as India.

"Domestic tourism growth is expected to be slower with visitor nights forecast to grow to 297 million visitor nights or 0.2 per cent growth in 2005. Average annual growth between 2005 and 2014 is expected to remain relatively flat, with growth forecast at 0.9 per cent to reach around 323 million visitor nights in 2014.

"At the same time outbound departures by Australians are expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in 2005 to 4.7 million and by 3.2 per cent over the forecast period to around 6.2 million departures in 2014," Mr Salt said.

The new feature on the April 2005 Forecasts – the economic value forecasts for both inbound and domestic tourism's contribution to the economy - have been developed by the Tourism Research Australia (TRA) Forecasting Unit. Previously, direct tourism export earnings, based on visitor arrivals and assumptions for total visitor (real) expenditure, were forecast.

In real terms, the value of inbound tourism is forecast to increase from $18.5 billion in 2005 to $32.1 billion in 2014, representing average annual growth of 6.3 per cent. The value of domestic tourism in real terms is forecast to increase from $56.4 billion in 2005 to $62.4 billion in 2014, representing average annual growth of 1.1 per cent.

The TFC releases revised forecasts bi-annually, usually around April and November, to account for any changes in the global and domestic tourism environment. Any events which require significant revisions to the forecasts should be assessed as required.

The TFC's membership draws on the combined expertise of the private and public sectors in the tourism and finance industries. Chaired by Bernard Salt, (KPMG), Committee members are from the Australian Bankers' Association, the Australian Standing Committee on Tourism, the Australian Tourism Export Council, the Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, the Property Council of Australia, Qantas, Queensland Tourism Industry Council, Tourism Australia, and TTF Australia. Other organisations are consulted with as necessary.

Alongside TFC activity forecasts, tourism economic value forecasts allow industry and government to plan, invest, and create policy initiatives for Australia's tourism industry.