The first month in the black since March, but before reading too much into the recovery, the base effect matters here.

July 2025 was unusually weak, partly driven by a sharp drop in Hong Kong arrivals — itself triggered by SNS-amplified rumors of an impending earthquake in Japan. That low base made this month's flat-but-positive number easier to achieve than it looks.

The underlying composition tells the real story.

China is down 56.1% YoY — now running at roughly half its 2025 volume, month after month, with no sign of reversal. The Chinese government has issued formal advisories recommending its citizens avoid travel to Japan, and the aviation capacity that once served that corridor has been permanently reallocated elsewhere.

Filling the gap: South Korea +31.9%, Taiwan +26.4% — both hitting all-time July records. The aviation supply story runs in the opposite direction here: both markets have seen new routes and added capacity, which is showing up directly in the numbers.

Meanwhile, the cost of visiting Japan is quietly but structurally rising. From July 1, Japan raised its departure tax from ¥1,000 to ¥3,000 — the first change since the tax was introduced in 2019.

Tourist visa fees for travelers from over 100 countries were quintupled on the same date, from ¥3,000 to ¥15,000 for a single-entry visa (the first revision since 1978).

And accommodation taxes are spreading: Kyoto now charges up to ¥10,000 per person per night at higher-end properties, with other prefectures rolling out their own versions.

Add in this summer's extreme weather — heavy rains, typhoons, and ongoing seismic concerns — and the operating environment for tourism businesses is genuinely difficult.

The headline numbers may be flattening out. And in that environment, the strategic imperative shifts: from growing visitor volume to growing spend per visitor. Japan has the product, the demand, and the pricing power to make that transition. The question is whether operators and platforms are moving fast enough to capture it.

(Source: JNTO, August 2026 preliminary figures)

For anyone tracking these shifts by country, by region, over time — I built a dashboard that makes Japan inbound data easy to navigate. It updates monthly in line with JNTO releases. 👉 https://lnkd.in/g9ZeGSaT

Takao Nishina - Follow
Japan & Korea Market Lead @ GetYourGuide | Built Japan’s inbound experience market from scratch | Founder, Tabinaka Summit.