Cape Town's tourism has shown remarkable resilience through global crises, with air connectivity proving to be the quiet engine behind its rise as a world-class destination.

The numbers reveal surprising insights about where visitors come from, how much they spend, and how growth is spreading well beyond the city itself.

Cape Town’s tourism industry has proven time and again that it can weather challenging conditions. From the Global Financial Crisis to the 2018–2019 drought and the COVID-19 pandemic, the city has consistently adapted and recovered.

Now, with renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East creating uncertainty for global travel, the local industry is once again maintaining a calm, business-as-usual approach.

According to Wesgro, airlines such as Emirates and Qatar Airways account for around 10% of weekly flight capacity into Cape Town. While disruptions to these routes have raised concerns, other airlines are stepping in to help fill the gap:

• Lufthansa has added additional frequencies on its Frankfurt route;
• KLM is deploying larger aircraft, adding around 100 extra seats per flight; and
• Ethiopian Airlines has upgraded to larger aircraft, adding approximately 150 additional seats per flight.
• While these changes will not fully offset lost capacity, they will help ease pressure during peak travel periods.

Why Flights Matter More Than You Think

For a long-haul destination like Cape Town, flights are more than just transport, they are a critical enabler of the tourism economy. Without sufficient seat capacity, even strong travel demand cannot translate into increased visitor numbers or spending.

That’s why initiatives like the Cape Town Air Access programme, led by Wesgro, play such a vital role. By securing new routes and increasing airline capacity, they continue to strengthen Cape Town’s position as a competitive global destination.

This momentum was further reinforced in April 2026 through a Memorandum of Understanding signed between Wesgro and Emirates focused on strengthening inbound tourism and air access into the Western Cape.

A Look Back: When Connectivity Constrained Growth

Historically, growth hasn’t always been smooth. Between 2004 and 2014, international arrivals into Cape Town International Airport (CTIA) remained relatively flat, with domestic travel driving much of the activity. A large proportion of international travellers accessed Cape Town via Johannesburg and were therefore captured within domestic passenger counts.

Domestic and International Arrivals CTIA (2004 – 2014)

Source: Airports Company South Africa

Direct international air capacity to Cape Town was a key constraint. International flights were highly seasonal, with European carriers such as Virgin Atlantic, KLM, Air France and Lufthansa operating primarily during the European winter concentrating the bulk of international travel between November and March. Emirates and Qatar Airways were among the few airlines offering year-round services.

A major turning point came in 2012, when South African Airways reduced its direct international services to and from Cape Town. Combined with the lingering effects of the global financial crisis, this resulted in a 5% decline in international arrivals, reflected in a similar decline in overnight foreign visitors. Even the boost from the 2010 FIFA World Cup was not enough to sustain long-term growth.

Air Access - Unlocking Growth

Through a public–private partnership, the Cape Town Air Access Initiative (CTAA) was established to increase seat capacity and stimulate the tourism economy.

A decade on - despite a severe drought and a global pandemic - the results have been significant. Two-way passenger traffic at CTIA has grown by 92% since 2015, while overnight foreign visitors have also increased by 92%.

Correlation between foreign air Arrivals and foreigners overnighting in Cape Town (2009 – 2025)

Source: HVS Research

Traditional overseas source markets - Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom - have been major drivers of growth. As air connectivity between these countries and Cape Town has improved, demand has risen steadily, as illustrated below.

By the end of 2024, a significant share of travellers from these key markets were using direct flights: Germany (36%) and the United States (46%). Data for the United Kingdom segment is not available.

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Kirsty de Groot is an Associate Director at HVS Middle East & Africa. Kirsty is resourceful, tenacious and an analytical thinker by nature. She has worked in the consulting space for over 25 years and has completed diverse projects with a focus on innovative solutions and recommendations that allow clients to navigate complex markets and provide them with informed and meaningful advice.

Kirsty has worked in Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia and her diverse skill set includes, amongst others, feasibility studies, market assessments, bank due diligence, operator selection and assistance with contract negotiations. Her knowledge and understanding of African hospitality is extensive, having worked on or managed projects in more than 30 African markets.

For more information, contact Kirsty at kdegroot@hvs.com