The US hotel sector continues to show strength, with weekly RevPAR gains averaging 4% YTD through May and exceeding 5% in recent weeks.

Our latest RevPAR growth forecast reflects 3.0% for 2026, which may be on the conservative side if elevated travel trends continue through the summer vacation and fall convention seasons.

With consistent RevPAR growth above expectations this year, our RevPAR growth forecast for 2026 is 3.0%, a strong increase relative to the weak 2025 result. We expect continued favorable RevPAR growth this year, but at levels moderately below those posted from March through early May, as last year’s performance during those weeks was affected by the initial launch of DOGE efforts and the tariffs announcements, which shook the economy and influenced travel.

In the trailing-28-day period ending June 13, national RevPAR was up 4.9%, according to STR/CoStar (May RevPAR was up 4.0%). This is turning out to be a strong year for our industry, with RevPAR growth that has been relatively consistent since February.

What is causing this rather remarkable RevPAR trend during a time of international conflict, lackluster employment growth, and continued uncertainty? We are ultimately experiencing a time when a significant segment of the public understands that this climate may be the “new normal” for now and it is time to get back to enjoying travel, attending conventions, and doing business. Many other key factors are contributing to the RevPAR expansion, which we have detailed in prior articles.

For example, many cities had more favorable convention calendars this spring, the Minneapolis market realized an influx of demand in early 2026 during the surge in ICE enforcement activity, and the Bay Area is experiencing a strong rebound as a center of A.I. research and development, among other market-specific lifts nationwide.

A portion of U.S. travelers who would have vacationed abroad for spring break and leisure trips in late February through early May chose stateside destinations this year due to conflicts and other perceived risks to having a hassle-free, peaceful trip. Couple this trend with more “revenge travel” occurring this year following the cancellation or postponement of some trips during a tumultuous 2025, and RevPAR is experiencing the benefits (particularly in the luxury, upper-upscale, and upscale categories that include most resorts).

Our current U.S. forecast is as follows.

HVS Forecast for U.S. Hotel Metrics Through 2028

Source: HVS (Forecast), STR/CoStar (Historical)

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Rod Clough, MAI, President – Americas, is in his 30th year with HVS and leads the Americas region from its headquarters office in Colorado. As President, Rod has developed the vision and strategy for the Americas and oversees its execution throughout the Americas' 40 locations. He has cultivated a firm that thrives with an extraordinary culture and remains the thought leader in the hospitality consulting space. He is proud to lead a group of 175 exceptional team members that execute thousands of engagements annually. Rod also has a passion for speaking, regularly sharing the insights and thought leadership of HVS at the nation's leading hospitality conferences. Rod is a graduate of Cornell's School of Hotel Administration, a Designated Member of the Appraisal Institute (MAI), a state-certified general appraiser, and a licensed hotel broker. Contact Rod at (214) 629-1136 or rclough@hvs.com.