|Economic updates: parts of Europe and Emerging Markets.|
Thursday, 11th October 2012
Source : Rabobank
Here are the Economic Updates for September on Germany, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Emerging Markets.
General – Still no reason to cheer
The activity in the eurozone shrunk by 0.2% q-o-q in 12Q2. While a slowdown was manifested in all member states, growth differences between northern and southern countries remained pronounced. The eurozone crisis is taking its toll on emerging markets as well.
Germany – So far, so good, but…
GDP increased by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q2 buoyed by strong net trade growth.The positive contribution of external demand is not expected to continue in 12Q3 amid weakening global growth. Also soft indicators point toward a slowdown of growth in 12Q3.
Spain – From bad to worse
Austerity measures are clearly having an adverse effect on economic activity. After a relatively modest pace of contraction in the first half of the year, we expect the pace of decline in economic activity to pick up in the second half.
Belgium – Heading towards a recession?
Several indicators pointed to a mild GDP contraction in 12Q2, but the actual shrinkage was larger than expected. The weak investment climate and low sentiment levels of both consumers and producers do not bode well for a recovery in the short term.
The Netherlands – Dutch economy inching along
In the second quarter, the Dutch economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. The Dutch economy continued to depend on international trade, while the domestic demand remained very weak.
Emerging Markets – Some countries are more equal than others
Emerging markets worldwide are affected by the economic fallout of the eurozone crisis and lackluster performance elsewhere. Some are still beating this trend, though, while the economic clouds in Mexico and Poland have silver linings.